This week’s US macroeconomic data:
Yesterday, the USA published the GDP report for Q2 2013. The GDP gained 2,5% during the reporting period while analysts had expected +2,2%. Therefore, the figures came out better than expected.
At the same time, the US consumer market also revealed some data. In particular, the recent durable goods orders report for July came out worse than expected. The report showed -7,3% against -4% expected by analysts. The weekly comparative index of retail sales showed almost no change month-over-month.
As for mortgage lending, the current mortgage rate is 4,8%. The previous figures are 4,68%. As you can see, the rate keeps growing.
As far as the US labor market is concerned, the recent report on initial jobless claims showed 333K versus expected 332K. Last week’s figures are 336K.
At the same time, the consumer confidence index showed 81.5 points against the forecast of 79 points. The previous figures are 80.3 points.
The bottom line: the macroeconomic reports give us to understand that the economic situation in the country seems to be positive. The rate of inflation is stable. The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at a record-low level of 0,25%. Still, the US stock and treasuries markets are under pressure caused by the possibility that the Fed may start tapering QE3 in the near future.
Technically, the stock market is in correction after the September ES futures reached 1700. At this point, there are no strong reasons to consider a major decline. Treasuries are in downtrend as well. They are trading within the 132-133 price range (September contracts). The market has been showing some strength over the last few days.
According to Masterforex-V Academy, the market is unlikely to see any further strengthening leading to a break above the top of the range. A break below the bottom of the range and a move down to 130 looks more probable at this point.
