On October 3rd 2012, a Syrian shell hit a Turkish village near the border, killing 3 Turkish citizen, including a woman and a child. The Turkish military instantly retaliated with artillery fire aimed at some Syrian military facilities.
On the face of it, it looks like a casual accident. In the contemporary history, we can count a lot of such border shooting and shelling incidents in hotspots around the globe. Moreover, during the latest war in Iraq, some shells also hit the Turkish territory by mistake. It is needless to say that the entire Middle East is now a single big hotspot.
But this time, the incident may escalate in to an armed conflict between Turkey and Syria. Was it a provocation? Let’s try to figure it out together…
Accident or Provocation?
There are chances that this was a mere accident. When there is a civil war in the neighboring country, anything can happen at the border with it.
However, more and more experts assume that this was an act of provocation. Few people believe in coincidences these days. Too many powers are interested in gaining control over the region.
If to go back to history, World War II started with a provocation as well. It is known as the Gleiwitz incident. The Russian-Finnish war resulted from a provocation as well.
Moreover, this is not the first incident in the relations between Turnkey and Syria. Since the civil war broke out, Turkey has been openly supporting the opposition. On July 22nd, a Syrian missile hit a Turkish jet (they say by mistake).
The USA and the NATO condemned Syria’s aggression while the Turkish parliament allowed the government to apply military force abroad.
Cui Prodest?
This is the key question. It is extremely difficult to find out the truth, especially when it comes to the Middle East. Anyway, let’s try to ponder a bit on the question.
Syria. Let’s start with the “aggressor” itself. Syria has been war-torn for over 12 months. It is logically to assume that the authorities are not interested in starting a foreign intervention on top of the civil war, especially as the Turkish air forces are some of the biggest powers in the region. Turkish officials say the country is powerful enough to finish off Syria in a couple of hours. However, Turkey is not hostile towards the people of Syria.
Taking into account that Syria’s military forces are weakened and demoralized to some extent, Turkey could easily occupy Syria (or at least its northern part). Moreover, Syria apologized for the incident shortly after it happened.
The only logical reason for Syria to provoke Turkey is to get Iran (Syria’s only ally) involved in the armed conflict in case there is a full-fledged foreign intervention.
Turkey. The country has more reasons to start a conflict against Syria, especially as the Syrian opposition is supported by the NATO. Turkey seems to want to restore its influence in the region. Moreover, don’t forget about the Kurd issue (Kurds live on the territories of several neighboring countries, including Turkey, and Syria).
According to Eugene Olkhovsky, ’s leading expert, Turkey doesn’t want to get involved in an armed conflict with Iran, especially as Turkey is a tourist country….
Moreover, Turkey depends on Russian and Iranian energy carriers. In case there is a conflict between Turkey and Syria, Russia and Iran will definitely take Syria’s side. In this case, Turkey will become more dependent on the USA and the NATO as they will have to get involved in the war.
On the other hand, Israel may be interested in a conflict between the two countries. So, Turkey cannot afford making such a gift to its enemy.
Turkish politicians say Turkey is not interested in a war against Syria but is capable of defending its borders. They also say that if Turkey wanted to start a war, it would have destroyed Syria after a Syrian missile hit a Turkish jet. That sounds logical.
And what about the USA? The only reason why the USA may be interested in a war between Turkey and Syria is the possibility of getting rid of Bashar Assad, thereby making a cat’s paw of Turkey. The USA cannot afford a direct intervention in Syria in advance of the forthcoming presidential election.
It would be ideal to for the USA and its European allies to provoke a local conflict between Turkey and Syria without Iran’s involvement.
Iran. Theoretically, Iran might be interested in such a conflict as well. If Syria and Turkey (supported by the NATO) start an armed conflict, Iran will get some extra time. If this is the case, the supporters and followers of the Islamic Revolution will do their best to make it a protracted war.
The Syrian opposition is also interested in some external support from Turkey and its allies as it is very difficult for them to fight against the governmental troops single-handed.
Anyway, the statements and arguments given above are nothing but suppositions and food for thought.
Fighting For Resources
The Syrian issue suggests oil-and-gas underlying reasons. It is closely connected with the Iraqi one. The crude oil produced in Iraq needs to be exported and refined. There are 2 major oil routes from Iraq: the Straight of Hormuz and Turkey. The latter looks unacceptable as the capacity is too low and the route lies across Kurdish territories. The Hormuz variant is the optimal one but it is controlled by Iran. So, Syria may become an alternative route.
Obviously, the issue cannot but influence the global market of crude oil. The chart below, courtesy of , reflects last week’s state of affairs in the market of WTI oil:
You are free to discuss the issue on ’s website.
