Despite the expected global surplus of sugar, because of high demand its prices may rise by the average of 20 US cents per pound. At this point major consumers of sugar can replenish their stock of sugar at relatively low prices. Higher demand will stimulate the growth of exporters’ profit, namely, Brazil, Thailand, Australia, and India.
Next marketing year, which starts on October 1st, positive balance is expected to range between 4 and 9.3 mln. tons. As a result, such countries as China will be able to increase their stocks, thus keeping to the price at global market. For example, such importer of sugar as Indonesia has already managed to gain the support of its government that has allowed the import of about 260 ths. tons of sugar by the end of January. In general, in 2012/13 export of sugar may rise to 56.1 mln. tons, which corresponds to the 2-percent increase of global consumption of sugar.
The yield of sugar cane in Russia is expected to amount to 46.3 mln. tons. Over 5 mln. Tons of sugar will be produced from it, which will considerably reduce the country’s demand for imported raw sugar. This year the crop area for sugar cane has amounted to 1122 ths. ha in comparison to 1176 ths. ha last year.
Following a short price rise, on Tuesday the trend of sugar has changed to the opposite because of quicker harvesting in Brazil. At New York exchange ICE October futures for raw sugar have dropped by 3% in comparison to the previous trading session, having closed at the point of 19.44 cents/pound (428 US dollars per ton). The lowest point in 4 weeks was fixed on Thursday, namely, 19.07 cents/pound. This is clearly shown on the chart.
