Numerous experts outside the US say that there is no essential difference between the Republicans and the Democrats. Each party has its own candidates and teams. They may seem to have different priorities but the list of major tasks, partners, friends and enemies turns out to be the same.
Some US experts ("Christian Science Monitor" in particular) say that there are major differences, especially now when the antagonism between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in advance of November’s presidential election is strong as never before.
What are the differences between the candidates?
Obama VS Romney: Vital Differences
According to Eugene Olkhovsky, ’s leading expert, there are at least 6 vital differences between the two candidates:
1. Approach to social sphere. Barack Obama is planning to continue supporting education and healthcare. American pupils lag behind their peers in Russia, China, Japan and other countries in terms of knowledge and mental development.
The Republicans say this policy is costly and wasteful. They blame Obama and his “socialist” programs for economic inefficiency, not to mention the fact that the US public debt exceeded $16 trillion under his presidency.
Therefore, Romney is planning curtail numerous social programs up to canceling some social guarantees. Indeed, why spending billions of dollars on education if they can attract talented and smart scientists and experts in various fields from around the globe through “brain drain”?
2. Financial system. Romney is planning to bring back the Gold Standard. The Republicans assume this is the most efficient way to hinder the wave of uncontrolled money-printing. On the other hand, Obama is determined to keep stimulating the US economy by all means, including quantitative easing, which will eventually increase the US public debt. The Democrats say that Romney’s tough monetary stance may result in a major unpredictable crisis around the globe with the USA being the biggest loser.
3. Taxes. Everything is simple. Romney is going to implement a series of tax cuts. Obama is planning to increase tax rates for the rich. Romney speaks about the economic and financial renaissance of the USA as well as about the fact Russia, China and India start catching up with the USA while Obama is focused on social justice, saying that a wide gap between the rich and the poor is unacceptable.
4. Military policy. Romney is going to increase the size of the US Army. For Obama, the US Army and defense industry are costly and need to be curtailed. He is intended to withdraw the US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq.
5. Foreign policy in the Middle East. Strange as it may seem, but the statements given in the previous paragraph contradict those given here. In particular, Obama speaks about the probability of being involved in new armed conflicts in the Middle East (Syria and Iran). On the contrary, Romney assumes that Obama’s foreign policy in the Middle East has been inefficient so far. He says that even though the USA needs to restore its leadership, the country should abandon all the proclaimed (and probably lost) wars and proceed to a less straight policy in the Middle East.
6. External policy: allies and enemies. Along with his tough attitude towards the Middle East, Obama sees Russia and China as potential partners. He doesn’t deny the possibility of cooperating with them.
On the contrary, Romney sees Russia as the USA’s enemy number one. He assumes the USA should toughen its stance against Russia, Cuba, Venezuela , Belarus and China (China’s global trade ambitions must be hindered).
Prospects of Implementation
According to FX clearing (a member of the premier league of ’s rating of Forex brokers ) some ideas can be implemented while others cannot. In particular, it is next to impossible to bring back the Gold Standard as there is not enough gold to back all the US dollars and bonds.
Some experts say that a major financial collapse is needed to restore the Gold Standard. However, they do not deny the possibility that one day a flotilla of cargo ships full of dollars may come to the USA to exchange them for a sea of gold bullions (10 times more than stored in Fort Knox’s Gold Bullion Depository. the Republicans are trying to find out whether the depository still contains gold).
On the contrary, it is obvious that Romney will easily implement his defense and tax policies once elected. As for Romney’s economic ambitions, they look promising, even though stock markets may react with a decline.
If Obama is reelected, we will probably see further economic stimulation through quantitative easing attended by higher public debt and some financial bubbles (some of them haven’t burst since 2008).
As for the USA’s external policy, it is not that simple. Romney isn’t planning big-scale military campaigns. However, nobody can guarantee that he won’t change his mind once elected (remember George Bush Jr’s change of plans after the 9/11 attacks). On the other hand, we cannot be 100% sure that Obama will implement his foreign policy plans if reelected. One thing is sure: after the election, the USA’s external policy will be hard to predict.
As for the relations with Russia, China and other countries, Romney will probably confine himself to making some “tough” statements without any major actions.
US Dollar Prospects:
Obviously, if Obama is reelected and lets the FRS continue implementing economic stimulation through quantitative easing, the US Dollar will depreciate.
On the contrary, Romney’s victory will probably help the US Dollar to consolidate its positions against other currencies. However, if he starts a trade war with China, the Chinese may teach the USA a lesson by making the US dollar collapse (China is the biggest holder of US bonds).
In the meantime, the USD index continues its downtrend against basket of major currencies. Even though the price is consolidating within a range, a break below 81.22 will resume the downtrend. If this is the case, the price may meet support at 80.71 and 80.46. Alternatively, a break above 81.84 and the top of the MF sloping channel will indicate the end of the current bearish move.
Who Will Win?
Multiple surveys suggest that both the candidates have nearly equal chances to win November’s presidential election. However, we can often see the incumbent president having a slight edge over his rival. However, these days more Americans get disappointed by Obama’s administration.
Still, most Americans support Obama’s reforms rather than Romney’s ambitions concerning social sphere. Some of them say Obama’s administration inherited multiple problems from George Bush Jr (who is a Republican like Romney). Others express their discontent with the US political system in whole. And finally, Obama is still viewed as the only candidate that can restore social justice and eliminate the immense gap between the rich and the poor.
It seems like Obama has slightly more chances to win the election….
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Who will win the US presidential election?
