Yesterday’s US retail sales report came out better than expected. This is the first retails sales increase in 4 months. The PPI came out better than expected as well. Today’s US consumer price report is expected to show a 0.2% increase for the first time in 4 months.
The eurozone’s industrial production report was bearish yesterday. However, the decline was not as considerable as expected. Germany’s GDP showed some growth, which was less substantial than a month ago. France’s GDP showed no changes as compared to June’s figures. This suggests that the eurozone is still in recession.
Yesterday’s downswing in the market of gold resulted from a decline in expectations of QE3 in the USA after the US retail sales report came out positive.
In the meantime, the workers of platinum mines in South Africa are still on strike. This affects the global production of the precious metal. As a result, platinum prices were rallying yesterday.
Barclays expects the global industrial demand for silver to grow in 2013. However, the experts say the market will see excessive supply (4,148 tons) for the 5 consecutive year.
In the meantime, the political risks in the Middle East are escalating as there a major conflict between Israel and Iran becomes more probable. However, if to exclude the political risks, gold prices may find themselves trapped in a narrow price range until the next FOMC meeting scheduled for mid September.
Today’s forecast:
According to the Commodity Trading Department of , gold may tests the support area around 1599-1600. If an H1 price bar closes below 1598, it may trigger a bearish move down to 1592-1590, 1575. Alternatively, a failure to stay below 1600 will trigger a rally up to 1610, 1617, and even 1625.
Silver is expected to test 27.65. A break below 27.65 will probably give way to 27.50, 27.25, and maybe 27.0. A break above 27.85 will trigger a bullish move up to 28.0, 28.25.
