Forex news, Euro rate. Last week has been marked by the end of another European forum, which was expected to bring wonder. Instead, just the opposite happened – for the first time during the crisis the dissolution of the European Union officially started.
West European community has been keeping so-called “midline” for many years. In this regard the regional development was rather synchronic and steady. All adopted innovations were obligatory for all members of EU, and, as a result, EU was a kind of economic, social, and cultural monolith. Economically weak countries were under constant care and received considerable dotations in order to feel like true community members. Deviations from “common equality” started with the formation of Shenzhen area and introduction of common currency. These “commonly European” initiatives were not accepted by all EU countries, but it was expected that in some time others would “join the company”.
Only Britain was in doubt; however, it has now become crystal clear that it is not going to join either European Union, or any other union. The country’s position is supported by the Czech Republic and Sweden .
In general, politologists have predicted such variants of development long ago. They have even invented bright names for them, such as the scenario of “concentric circles”or “multispeed”, the idea of which was to single out initiative and efficient core from underdeveloped periphery, which meant the countries that were unable to follow the general development rate and held back the general progress. In practice, the image was somewhat different – nobody has stopped Spain and Greece that were falling behind with “Euro – criteria”, and they have entered the integration core. However, Britain, having one of the most stable economies in the region, kept “staying aside”, at the periphery (but solely by its own initiative).
Before the summit German and French leaders have joined their efforts in the initiative to create a fiscal union as a part of EU; all members of such union were supposed to strictly follow the budget discipline and discuss every step in this sphere. Great Britain has never been excited about such perspective, but there remained a tiny hope for the compromise. However, British Premier has blocked such initiative and left the summit before it was over – so to say “in the English manner”. The heads of the Czech Republic and Sweden have not been so radical, but they have neither supported the initiative of France and Germany.
The fiscal union will now have to be registered indirectly – by a special agreement bearing a working title “Euro+”, which is supposed to be created by spring 2012.
The market may wait for the ratification of new agreement, which will for some time guarantee no default or shock.
Further perspectives are rather vague. If the union “manages” to be formed, this will mean that the EU is undergoing a serious change. British disaffiliation may even be not the worst thing ever, for it has existed separately from continental Europe for a long time; as a result, EU may find it easier to reach consensus concerning many important issues. The question remains whether Britain itself will benefit from this.
These days Euro futures 6E is traded in the range of 1.2980 - 1.3080
