Stock exchange news. After the rise to the maximum level of14.65 dollars/bushel at the beginning of September soybeans quotations have dropped to 12.6 dollars/bushel, which can be logically explained by:
- firstly, the USDA report issued on September 12 was bear: production forecast was increased for the USA (from 83.168 mln. MT to 83.969 mln. MT) and India (from 9.8 mln. MT to 10.5 mln. MT).
- secondly, the expected new harvest in the USA and in other countries of the Northern hemisphere is also putting and will continue to put the price under pressure.
- trirdly, the increase of final stocks in Argentina by 300 ths. tons, to 22.7 mln. MT, in Brazil by 645 ths. tons, to 19.35 mln. MT, in China by 100 ths. tons, to 12.909 mln. MT, and in the USA by 261 ths. tons, to 4.481 mln. MT is also a bear sign.
The world stocks are expected to be at the level of 62.547 mln. MT, which is by 2.6% higher than August forecast, but by 9% less than the final stocks last year. September forecast of world import has remained unchanged and amounts to 95.271 mln. MT. Export has increased by 407 ths. tons mainly by means of the USA, the export of which is predicted at the level of 38.51 mln. MT.
Record soybean production is expected in India. According to the report issued on September 12, production will amount to 10.5 mln. MT, which is by 7% higher than the previous marketing year. India is one of five world soy producers, with almost all production remaining at domestic market and export amounting to about 10 ths. tons of beans.
As of September 18, the condition of future US harvest is estimated as good. In this reference, 29% of the harvest is in satisfactory condition (versus 25% one year ago), 43% in good (versus 46% one year ago), and 10% in excellent condition (versus 17% one year ago). There is a delay in shedding leaves: as of September 18, only 33% of future harvest is without leaves, whereas last year it amounted to 47%. This is mostly connected with late planted beans this spring.
It is worth mentioning that the new 2011/12 marketing year started since September 1.
The analytics of Masterforex-V Academy Department of Derivatives Trading admit that in the mid-term the price is most likely to continue falling till the end of harvesting period in the Northern hemisphere. The price may be supported by increased export interest from China as well as psychological levels of 12.5 and 12 dollars/bushel.
