FOREX: weekly market outlook

Most currencies continued declining, being driven by poor data on the US economy. Ben Bernanke disappointed the market by saying nothing about QE3. He only said that the FRS was ready to make serious steps without specifying them.

According to the DFWA Department of , on Monday traders will be focused on the USA’s consumer spending and personal income, Core PCE and preliminary home sales for July.

EURUSD: mid-term outlook. After the rapid upswing is over there will be a prolonged retracement, probably for the entire trading week, Even though the wave will be bullish, the market will most likely be showing a roller-coaster movement. There probably won’t be any certainty.

GBPUSD: mid-term outlook. Last week the market created a downswing. This week the situation will change for an upward tendency. It means that short-term but probably deep retracements should be used to make new purchases.

USDCHF: mid-term outlook. After a significant decline seen over the last months, USDCHF formed a fairly interesting bullish pattern and even reached a major level of resistance (the orange line). The main question is whether it will go further up to the pink line. In order to answer it let’s analyze the wave structure of the previous upswing. We can see that the movement cannot be called a major one. The waves are short (in time). It means that another rally is unlikely. A prolonged retracement is more likely at this point.

USDJPY: mid-term outlook. The chart looks confusing. But if to take a closer look, we can see that this week sales can be a promising solution for traders, especially if there is a minor upward retracement.

AUDUSD: mid-term outlook. The currency pair is forming the 3^rd wave, which may well be elongated by a couple of hundred points up. At this point purchases are risky. It is recommended to wait for a retracement down to the red line and to start buying around it.

NZDUSD: mid-term outlook. We’ll see the end of the 2^nd upward correction and will catch the beginning of the 3^rd downswing. Short-term purchases are possible from the green line of support. Further on there will be a chance to make mid-term sales.

USDCAD: mid-term outlook. Now the currency pair is forming the 3^rd downswing. The wave is moving towards the orange line of support. It will be profitable to sell after the market makes an upward retracement up to 0,9860.