After the prolonged civil war in Côte d'Ivoire in March the country supplied substantial volumes of cocoa beans to the global market, thus making the price collapse.
Since April 2011 the price has been moving in the range between 3350 and 2850. It should be noted that Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria are Africa’s 3 leading cocoa producers and exporters. Africa grows roughly 68% of the global supplies. In June the export supplies in San Pedro reached 83594 tons. A year before it was only 20078 tons. There are still some negative factors affecting the market.
In Cameroon, Africa’s 4th largest producer, cocoa trees are affected by a disease. The crop is under threat. Moreover, some experts say that in numerous countries there are threats of LA NIÑA, which may affect cocoa trees as well.
Moreover, Ghana reported about a 60% increase in its supplies (up to 1 million tons).
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported about an increase in August’s production forecasts for Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. According to some experts, abundant harvests will make the global market oversupplied in the 2010/2011 marketing year. The market will probably keep moving in the 2700-3300 range. However, the overall sentiment is slightly bearish, which means that the price will probably head towards the lower border of the range.
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