In long-term perspective, the market situation stays unchanged: the global consumption is still growing while the production level is the same and the reserves are being reduced. Next week the USDA is expected to publish its report on soybeans, which will determine the mid-term movement.
The seasonal tendency connected with harvesting in South America and its supplies to the global market has been preventing the price from coming out of the 1430-1260 range for several months.
The current situation:
First of all the US has reduced the export of soybeans for the 3rd week in a row (last week the export volume reached 150,368K tons, which was 90K more than a week before).
The USA is expected to start a sowing campaign in the short run. However, the situation around the cultivation areas is not clear. The unfavorable weather conditions may force farmers to expand the areas for soybeans at the expense of corn (the current forecast for soybeans is 76,6M hectares).
Besides, the export of soybeans from Brazil reached 5.1M tons in April, which was 200K more than in April 2010.
All the mentioned factors are expected to press the prices in short-term perspective. It should also be noted that on May 2nd the price broke through 1.4000 but failed to consolidate above it and made a pullback.
The Department of cCmmodity Trading,
