World exchange markets get ready for strong falls.

That is what conclusion the experts of the Department of Investments (the sub-department of portfolio analysis) have come to. It should be noted that earlier they were right while saying that the trading week was going to be flattish.
Now there is a forecast, which won’t be pleasant for investors and shareholders around the world: as it has been advised by the analysts, it is better to stay away from the market and take profit.
The current week shows downtrend, however we expect the market to continue growing after the retracement with a chance of turning into a New-Year rally.
The following trading tactics can be chosen this week: opening “short” positions at current prices with taking profit at support levels 1125 and 1100 for S&P500. Then looking for an opportunity to buy (not earlier than the next week) while expecting the New-Year rally.


The Operators’ positions.
As it can be seen on the charts, the Operators have been staying predominantly “short” for 2 weeks. They are not in a hurry to buy. The other market participants feel more confident about the market, with bulls dominating among them. Consequently there is high probability of retracement.
The market has been consolidating over the last 2 weeks, with possible sales of the Operators. We also suppose that during the last 2 weeks the weak participants opened buy positions with relatively the stop-loss orders being relatively close to the price of the market enter. During the retracement these stop-loss orders may exert extra pressure on the market.


• The upper blue and red lines = the Operators’ long and short positions
• The lower blue and red lines = the weak players’ long and short positions
• The white line = the Operators’ core positions
• The yellow line = the weak players’ core positions

Last week the market of accrued liabilities showed profit reduction (the assets got more expensive).
Late August/early September show clear signs of sales, that’s why we expect the uptrend to be reversed in the short run.



Crude Oil shows an upward tendency (it is common for autumn). However, we do not expect a strong mid-term or long-term trend.
According to our analysis of market sentiments for the last quarter, investors do not expect crude oil to grow rapidly within a year. For the next 6 months the fundamental estimation doesn’t exceed $85.


Preliminary quarterly profit from passive oil investment for the next 12 month is estimated to be 2.3%.


Focus List – let’s consider the following shares for mid-term investment:
We suggest investing within the framework of the given trading tactics – buying only after market corrections (the retracement depth is 3-5%, the duration is 1-2 weeks).


Focus List made on Oct 4th 2010

The selection of shares basing on their fundamental and technical values:
Alexey Afanasiev, Natalia Kovtun, Sergey Ovsienko, Tatsiana Mordvitseva.

Each analyst confirms that the assets (shares) were chosen independently, without the influence of their emitters or affiliated persons and that he/she doesn’t benefit from the assets recommended by him/her.

The material is provided by the Sub-department of portfolio analysis, the Department of Investments, .