Dmitri Lysenko
The situation in forex, which is the international currency market, has always influenced many other fields of human life worldwide. In the meantime, traders and investors rely on accurate forex forecasts to earn money. That is why Market Leader keep on telling you about those weekly consensus forecasts, courtesy of NordFX. In particular, the local expert team has come up with another forecast based on the time-tested approach, which boils down to studying tons of related sources, expert opinions, as well as predictions made based on technical and graphical analysis.
This week's market situation is likely to be determined by a range of expected events. The trading week is definitely going to be rich in events, each of which may well trigger considerable market moves, and even reverse the existing trends.
To start with, the Eurozone ministers of finance are to hold a summit on Brussels on Monday, March 11th. Also, later on the day, the U.S. Department of Trade is to release another retail sales report. According to the most recent forecasts, the information may strengthen the dollar. On Tuesday, another U.S. economic report is expected to be released, this time the CPI, which stands for the Consumer Price Index. Apparently, the Fed Chairman's speech on the central bank's future monetary policy is also worth talking into account. Wednesday is the time of another U.K. budget report coupled with the China's retail sales and industrial production. Thursday is the time for Germany's CPI. The Bank of Japan's Chairman is expected to reveal the central bank's monetary policy plans on Friday.
However, none of those events is as important as the 2nd round of the Brexit voting in the British Parliament. On Tuesday, the legislators will get another opportunity to evaluate the contents of the possible agreement. In case the voting fails again, the next day the parliamentarians may consider the option of postponing the Brexit until later. Given the current sentiments prevailing among the legislators, chances are the U.K. may well opt for another Brexit referendum. International experts say that the stats may go beyond simply affecting the currency exchange rates. The decisions made this week may change the conditions for the entire global economy. Given all of the factors mentioned above, the consensus forecast is this:
EUR/USD
Around 60% of the respondents, backed by almost 90% of the oscillators and trend indicator, predict a further drop for the common European currency. They anticipate a move down to 1.1100-1.1125. It's interesting to note that when tic comes to the second half of March, 60% of the experts have now turned bullish, therefore expecting a rally up to 1.1400-1.1500.
GBP/USD
65% of the experts are bearish on the currency pair, expecting a drop down to 1.2850-1.2900. A longer-term forecast also differs - 60% of the experts expect a rally up to 1.3350, February's high, with the chance to go up by another 200 points.
USD/JPY
Despite last week's drop, USD/JPY keeps on stying within the upward sloping channel started in early January 2019. That's why 60% of the experts, backed by D1 charts. assume that the currency pair is likely to break the 112.00 level, only to move inside the 112.25-113.70 range, thus repeating the market behavior seen in November-December 2018.
40% of the experts stick to the opposite scenario. They are convinced that it's pointless to count on growth until the currency pair reaches the bottom around 109.70-110.10.
Cryptocurrencies
The cryptocurrency market remains uncertain. International experts are at odds over the prospects of this market. MagicPoopCannon, one of the most respected cryptocurrency traders and one of the leading TradingView authors, has recently conducted an interesting survey in his Twitter. Around 3000 users participated in the survey. 42% of them are convinced that over the next 4 years, the cost of Bitcoin would be somewhere in between $100K and $1M per coin. 30% responded with a price between $20K and $200K per coin. 13% think the coin will stay within the range between $3K and $20K per coin. The remaining 15% think the coin will go under $3K.
As for the BTC forecast for the current trading week, most experts expect the BTC/USD to move within $3,600-4,300 per coin.
Dmitri Lysenko
