More and more experts expect the Russian Ruble to show more weakness by late 2016. This is what the recent consensus forecast says. Some of them expect USDRUB to go up from 64,8 to 66 RUB per 1 USD. Others are even more skeptical about the Russian currency and expect it to drop even more. In particular, the expect USDRUB to rally all the way up to 75. Only 2 of the 10 respondents are bullish on the Russian Ruble and expect it to get stronger, which means that USDRUB is expected to go down.
As we are getting closer towards the end of the year, we should remind you that the Russian national currency is often gets weaker at the end of each year. This can already be treated as a seasonal factor. That’s why the experts recommend the Russians to start buying U.S. Dollars to avoid seeing their savings getting devalued.
On the one hand, the Russian Ruble seems to be feeling good now. We remind you that the currency has strengthened from 73 all the way up to 65 Rubles per Dollar since early 2016. This means that the Rubble managed to regain some of the ground lost in January as the result of a downtrend that followed the oil price crash.
Still, experts believe that some external factors may underline the stability of the Russian currency in the near future, including the forthcoming presidential election in the USA, as well as the Fed’s interest rated decision and oil prices. As for the internal factors related to the USA, so far they have had a minor impact on the U.S. Dollar.
Some of the experts believe that USDRUB may go up to 70 if the Fed goes on with the series of interest rate hikes. Since this may drop oil prices, the Russian Ruble may follow because the Russian economy and national currency is heavily dependent on the export of crude oil. All in all, there are reasons to expect a weaker Ruble while there are no reason to expect a stronger one, most of the experts say.
