July 12th (GMT)
08:30 GBP - СPI
12:30 USD - Тrаde Bаlаnce
18:00 USD - FOMС Meеting Мinutes
July 13th (GMT)
08:30 GBP - Clаimant Count Changе
14:00 USD - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
July 14th (GMT)
12:30 USD - Сore Retail Salеs
12:30 USD - PРI
12:30 USD - Rеtail Sаles
12:30 USD - Unemplоyment Clаims
14:00 USD - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
July 15th (GMT)
12:30 USD - Cоre СРI
13:55 USD - UoM Cоnsumer Sentimеnt
Tentative EUR - Bank Stress Test Results
Last week GBPUSD started rallying from 1.6061 and reached the week’s high at 1.6139 due to the U.K.’s Construction PMI, which matched the analytic forecasts even though the latest value came out worse than the previous one. Then the currency pair dropped down to 1.5990 and rallied right in advance of the U.K.’s Services PMI. It had been expected to grow up to 53.6pts but the released data came out 0.3pts better than expected, which favored another rally up to 1.6127. But right after reaching the level the British Pound started weakening again and reached the week’s bottom at 1.5930. Later the USA released its Non-Farm Employment Change thus making GBPUSD rocket sky high up to 1.6077. But the currency pair failed to consolidate around the top and finished the trading week by retracing down to 1.6044. Thus the weekly range reached 209pts. The Non-Farm Employment Change report came out really unexpected – a decline down to 18K instead of the 97K expected by analysts, especially as before the release the ADP published its own Non-Farm Employment Change report (157K).
Friday was the most volatile day - in 15 minutes GBPUSD rallied 110pts, dropped by 35pts and then rallied 77pts more before declining once again. The US Non-Farm Employment Change data, as always, caused the strongest volatility hikes.
As for the current trading week, it is going to be fairly rich in major economic releases, which are expected to increase the volatility of GBPUSD to a pretty high level.
On the U.K. economy we are going to see CPI (y/y) and Clаimant Count Changе. June’s data are expected to confirm that the year-to-year price increase has been 4.5% over the last 3 months, which is the highest value since 2008. The Bank of England, they say, will have to reconsider its upward targets to take into account higher prices on energy carriers. Anyway, if the data don’t match the forecast (come out worse or better than expected), the market of GBPUSD will face a volatility boom. Clаimant Count Changе is believed to drop down to 15,1K.
As for the U.S. reports, there are going to be much more of them. FOMС Meеting Мinutes, which are published 8 times a year in 3 weeks after the Fed Reserve’s interest rate decision, is scheduled for July 12th. The U.S. Trade balance is said to increase from $ 43.7B up to $ 44.1B.
On July 13th and 14th Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify in Washington. His speeches are always watched by traders and investors and attended by high market volatility.
The U.S.’s Core CPI is expected to grow while the CPI is said to gain 0.2%. The UoM Cоnsumer Sentimеnt is also expected to grow up to 72.5pts.
And finally, we should keep in mind that at the end of this week we’ll see Bank Stress Test Results.
The option levels of support are 1.5911, 1.5824. The closest option levels of resistance are 1.5999, 1.6074.
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Provided by the Department of Options,
