Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, says the fund may downgrade its forecast for the global economic growth due to July’s slowdown.
At the same time, Bundesbank underlined the risks of an economic slowdown in its monthly economic report. Yesterday’s Ifo business confidence report came out worse than expected. The index has been declining for the 5th consecutive month.
There are political risks as well. In particular, the island dispute between Japan and China keeps escalating. In the meantime, Iran threatens Israel with a preemptive strike.
According to the US Mint, the sales of silver coins have increased by 9% this month. The industrial demand (production solar panels etc.) accounts for 53% of the overall demand for silver. The Chinese import of silver has dropped by 24% for the first time in 8 months. For reference, China is the world’s 2nd biggest consumer of silver and is number 3 in terms of silver production.
China is nearing a week of holidays. Therefore, Asian dealers expect speculators and investors to reduce exposure in the market of gold in advance of long holidays next week.
Today’s forecast:
According to the Commodity Trading Department of , gold is expected to test 1760-1762. If an H1 price bar closes below 1759, we may see the price going down to 1750, maybe1725. Alternatively, a failure to stay below 1759 will give way to 1775, 1790, maybe 1800.
Silver may test 34.25. A break above 34.25 may result in a rally up to 34.65-34.75, while a break above 34.75 will give way to 35.25. If the price fails to stay above 34.25, it may trigger a bearish move down to 33.95, 33.75, 33.50, 33.25, or even 33.0.
