Serj Panchuk
Yesterday’s US GDP report came out better than the previous one. It means that the US economy is recovering. Pending home sales also showed an increase and exceeded analysts’ expectations. Therefore, the chances of the FRS hinting at QE3 are running low. Today’s jobless claims report is expected to be an additional test for those who expect another round of QE.
Japan’s retail sales report came out worse than expected this morning. Along with lower export, this factor may suggest considerable recession risks for the Japanese economy. If this is the case, we may see a flight of capital from Japanese bond. Therefore, the Japanese government will probably have to stimulate the national economy further.
The wave of protests in South African platinum mines seems to have grown into riots with 44 people killed. This means platinum prices will find further support in the short run. The government, miners and labor unions are looking for peaceful settlement of disputes.
Gold speculators seem to stay risk-averse till Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech scheduled for tomorrow.
Today’s forecast:
According to the Commodity Trading Department of , gold may test 1658-1660. If an H1 price bar closes below 1658, it will give way to 1660, maybe 1655. Alternatively, a failure to stay below 1658 will trigger a rally. A break above 1664 will give way to 1674-1675. A break above 1675 will make it possible to touch 1690 or even 1700.
Silver is expected to test 30.95. A failure to consolidate above 30.95 will bring the price back to 30.75-30.65 while a break below 30.65 will give way to 30.50, 30.25. Alternatively, if an H1 price bar closes above 30.95 we may well see the price rallying up to 31.25, 31.5.
Serj Panchuk
