The Greek Premier says Greece needs more time to implement the austerity plan. He underlines that Greece asks no extra financial support. At the same time, investors seem to be reacting to the ECB’s report about a decline in Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bond yields. This is exactly what Mario Draghi strived for.
Today’s existing home sales are expected to show an increase. If the forecast succeeds , this will suggests that the US housing market has started recovering. The FOMC meeting minutes will probably become another major market driver as investors will be trying to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s further steps.
Japan’s trade balance report came out negative again, thus showing a bigger deficit. Japan saw the biggest export decline in 6 months. This factor increases the probability of further economic stimulation.
The situation in Syria is escalating. This is another political risk, apart from the situation around Iran and the territory disputes between China and Japan.
As the US dollar got weaker amid the expectations of QE3 in the USA and further economic stimulation in Europe, gold managed to come out of the price range. However, any disappointment attended by stock markets weakness may result in gold prices retracing back.
Experts anticipate that India’s import of gold will decline by 40% down to 200 tons in September-October as there are very few favorable conditions for this year’s wedding season.
At the same time, Asian dealers report about mass sales of secondary gold.
Today’s forecast:
According to the Commodity Trading Department of , gold may test 1650-1654, 1665 on breaking above 1643. Alternatively, a failure to stay above 1643 will give way to 1640. A break below 1638 may trigger a bearish move down to 1625, 1618. The most probable scenario suggests price fluctuations within the 1630-1650 range throughout the day.
Silver is expected to test 29.40-29.50. if an H1 price bar closes above 29.50, the rally may continue up to 29.75, 30.0, and even 30.25. Alternatively, a failure to stay below 29.50 will trigger a bearish move down to 29.25, 29.0, 28.75. The most probable scenario suggests price fluctuations within the 29.0-29.50 range throughout the day.
