The eurozone crisis is still a major concern for investors. Now they are focused on Germany’s ability to back the ECB’s efforts. A referendum is an option. Most investors assume that the German economy will follow the rest of the eurozone and fall into recession.
After China released poor macroeconomic stats last week, investors started anticipating further stimulation of the world’s 2nd largest economy. In particular, they expect a cut in the reserve requirements and yuan rate. Others pay attention to the current price rally seen in the Chinese housing market. The Chinese stock market is showing weakness.
Japan showed a worse-than-expected GDP increase in Q2 2012. Some investors treat it as a sign confirming the global economic slowdown in response to the eurozone crisis.
On Sunday, the Prime Minister of Israel said that Iran’s nuclear program is the biggest threat to Israel. Obviously, this statement increased the political risks in the region.
Today’s forecast:
According to the Commodity Trading Department of , gold may test 1629-1630. If an H1 price bar closes above 1629, it will increase the probability of going up to 1635, 1650. Alternatively, a failure to consolidate above 1629 will trigger a bearish move down to 1620-1621. A break below 1620 will give way to 1610, 1600.
Silver may test 27.65-27.75. The closest levels of resistance are 28-28.10. A break below 27.65 will give way to 27.50, 27.25, and maybe 27.0. Alternatively, a break and consolidation above 28.10 will trigger a rally up to 28.25, 28.50, and maybe 28.75.
