Despite a decline in new orders, the US manufacturing production expanded in March. The revised consumer spending report showed declined from -0.1% down to -0.8%. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US GDP. That is why the forecast for the US economic growth in Q1 2012 was slightly downgraded down to 2-2.1%. At the same time, no Fed Reserve official hinted at another round of quantitative easing. Stocks rallied and made new highs amid positive stats.
Europe’s PMI and unemployment reports marched the forecasts, thus confirming economic stagnation. The eurozone’s quarterly GDP report is scheduled for today. The forecasts suggest another GDP decline (for the 2nd quarter in a row). The forthcoming G20 summit (scheduled for April 20th) will probably become the place where the IMF will decide to allocate some funds to help the eurozone.
Japan’s money supply shrunk by 0.25 in March. Politicians urged the Bank of Japan to prevent the Japanese Yen from deflating.
On Monday Indian jewelers continued the 17th day of strikes against higher gold import duties. China’s financial markets are closed for holidays until Thursday.
Forecast:
According to the Commodity Trading Department of , a break and consolidation above 1682 will trigger the upward scenario, a break below 1684 will make it stronger. The probable targets are 1695, 1700. If an h1 price bar closes below 1677 it will trigger the downswing with targets around 1675, 1664.
Silver may well decline down to32.75-32.70 if the price fails to consolidate above 33.10. If an H1 bar does close below the 33.10, it will trigger a rally, which will probably hit 33.5, 33.75 and may be 33.95.
