According to numerous surveys, the eurozone economy will be shrinking till September. The eurozone PMI and unemployment reports are scheduled for today. Analysts expect the PMI to decline below 50 while the rate of unemployment is expected to grow by 0.1%.
On Friday the Euro Group expanded the EFSF up to 800B euro. The IMF and US Treasury showed positive reaction to the event.
In the meantime, analysts anticipate positive stats on the US manufacturing production, consumer spending and construction. US bond dealers anticipate another round of quantitative easing in the USA.
China’s PMI report came out much better than expected, thus reassuring investors. However, it is expected that the export decline will force the People’s Bank of China into lowering the interest rates this quarter. Tax cuts are probable as well.
The demand for physical gold in Asia remains low, the investment demand is reserved as well. Chinese markets are closed today. The US Dollar will remain this week’s major driver in the market of gold.
Forecast:
According to the Commodity Trading Department of , gold is currently depreciating. The closest levels of support are 1664-1665. If an H1 price bar closes below, it will give way to a downswing to 1653-1650 and maybe even 1635-1638. Otherwise, if the price consolidates above 1672, it will trigger the bullish scenario with probable targets around 1678, 1685, 1695.
As for silver, if an h1 price bar closes above 32.50, it will resume the rally. The probable targets are 32.75, 33.0, 33.25. Otherwise, we may see the price going down to 32.25, 32-31.98, 31.50, especially if it consolidates below 32.38.
