According to the Prime Minister of Greece, yesterday the parliament approved the new austerity measures. However, the eurozone finance ministers demanded for extra measures to save 325m euro. The measures should be approved by the Greek parliament until next Wednesday when the eurozone minfins will hold another meeting.
The ECB, as expected, has left the key interest rate unchanged.
Yesterday’s US unemployment stats confirmed the current strength of the US economy. Most analysts start improving (upgrading) their forecasts for the US economic growth.
Yesterday the CME lowered the margin requirements for a number of futures, including the futures on precious metals. In particular, the margin for gold increased by 11.8%, platinum – 22.2%, silver- 13.5%. The new rules will take effect on Monday.
In January China’s export and import declined by 0.5% (y/y) and 1.5% (y/y) correspondingly. Analysts say that these data rather reflect lower commodity prices than lower demand.
The Bank of Japan will abstain from currency interventions next week in the hope that the signs of global economic recovery will help to stimulate the demand for Japanese products. The eurozone crisis is still the main risk. Japan’s GDP shrunk by 1.45 in Q4 2011 after a 5/6% increase in Q3. The Japanese legislators keep forcing the BoJ to take some steps in order to curb the deflation.
In the meantime the economic situation in Iran keeps deteriorating because of the Western sanctions. The country has to switch to barter when importing crops, thus exchanging it for gold or crude oil.
According to the Department of Commodity Trading of , gold may try to test 1741, 1751. The gold still cannot consolidate above 1750. If it does succeed, this will increase the probability of a further rally up to 1761, 1766. A break above the monthly high will give way to 1800. However, a failed taste is more probable. A break below 1741 will give way to 1 723-1724, and may be even 1700.
Silver will probably be testing the 34.15-34.25 resistance area. If an h1 bar fails to close above 34.25, it will increase the probability of falling down to 34, 33.70, 33.50. In order to continue the rally, silver will have to consolidate above 34.25. If so, the next potential target will be found at 34.50.
