Stock exchange news. American investment bank Morgan Stanley has issued this year predictions about the assets of finished goods and raw materials. In the condition of weak growth of global economy and weaker demand for raw material, the bank’s analytics are predicting the drop of oil price and the rise of gold price as most reliable “backwater”, as informed by RBK Agency.
According to the basic scenario of Morgan Stanley, “black gold” under Brent trademark is expected to be sold at the current rate of about $ 100 per barrel. However, there also is a “bearish” scenario, according to which world oil prices will drop to $ 75 per barrel. The pessimistic scenario certainly is not most pleasing to Russia, which has assigned much higher price for the “black gold” in 2012-2014, whereas the share of raw material export, according to Swiss bank UBS, amounts to 16% of Russian GDP.
If demand goes down, price of metals will go down too – copper and aluminum will drop by 9%, to $ 8.4 ths. per ton and to $2.3 ths. per ton accordingly, and nickel will drop by 7% (to $ 22 ths. per ton).
However the price of gold, according to Morgan Stanley analytics, will keep rising: if in 2011 the average price of troy ounce amounted to $ 1.6 ths., this year it may be expected to amount to $ 2.2 ths.; in other words, the growth will make up almost 40%.
In the sphere of agriculture American analytics are expecting to face a considerable decline of cotton and corn price by 20% and by 17% accordingly. At the same time, the price of live cattle and coffee will rise a little.
According to the experts of the Department of Мasterforex-V Trading System, oil future has formed bullish wave а(С) or reduced wave С 92.52 – 101.71. Strong bullish wave С of Daily level may be expected to be formed further; its nearest resistance will be provided by points 102.44, 102.78, and 103.95. The bullish trend will reverse and a bearish wave of upper wave level will be formed only when pivot MF 94.84 is passed and FZR formed.
According to the Department of Derivatives Trading under , today gold will continue the rising trend that was started on Friday. There may be the test of 1590-1594 level, and then the test of 1600 dollars per ounce, whereas the test of 1615 is less probable. The point of 1576 dollars per ounce is likely to support the falling correction. If this level is passed, there will start deeper correction to 1566-1570.
This morning silver is rising; its nearest resistance is provided by the points of 28.75, 29, and 29.10 dollars per ounce. Support of the rising trend will be provided by the point of 28.28; if it is passed, deeper correction to 27.97-28.0 will become more likely.
