Barclays Capital’s analysts expect gold to reach $1875/oz in Q4 2011. According to them, the average price in 2012 will be around $2000/oz.
The major factor is October’s inflow of capital in commodity markets (+$2.1B, with $1.5B invested in precious metals).Unlike gold or silver, platinum is a precious metal used mainly for industrial purposes. It is expected to fell pressure due to oversupply.
Investments make up the biggest share of the demand for gold amid global economic uncertainty.
Macroeconomic stats still cannot reassure investors. The US economic growth has just been reconsidered (+2% instead of +2.5%). The Fed Reserve is planning to stress-test 6 major US banks. The banks will have to provide the results by Jan 9th 2012.
According to the preliminary data, in November China’s Manufacturing PMI declined down to the lowest level since March 2009.
Spanish T-bond yields reached the record high level in 14 years. Now Spain will have to pay for its bonds even more than Greece. The IMF has already offered Spain a credit line to support its liquidity and solvency. Germany and France want to expand the EU’s authority to influence the budgets of eurozone members. They are ready to change the basic agreements.
Forecast: According to the Department of , today gold may continue its rally. The closest targets are 1724 and 1730. If there is some retracement, it may test 1700 and even 1688.
Silver is probably going to retrace and test the 32-32.2 area. However, if there is a rally, it well may reach the 33.9-34 zone.
It is not recommended to open new trades due to the possibility of higher volatility and flattish movements as most traders may start closing their trades in advance of Thanksgiving Day.
