Tatiana Dementieva
On Friday the 30- and 10-year US bond yields gained +0.22% и +1.22% correspondingly. Investors preferred to invest in risky assets: stocks and commodities. As a result, most commodities, including gold and silver, gained in value. European stock indexes showed some strength as well, thus increasing the demand for the common Euro currency.
Later on Monday EURUSD gained + 0.26% while the US index declined by 0.32%.
Monday’s open interest for gold futures and options increased by 0.61% and 0.08% correspondingly. Silver futures and options gained 1.87% and 0.32% correspondingly.
СМЕ Group’s gold and silver reserves lost as little as -0.002%, and -0.0009% correspondingly. ETF reserves shrunk by 0.1% down to 71.414M troy ounces.
Closing price, change in %:
· GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) 1652.6 +0.79%
· SILVER FUTURE (USD/t oz.) 31.69 +1.28%
Silver keeps being almost twice as volatile as gold. On Friday both gold and silver lost their trading volume, with gold showing positive correlation with stocks.
India’s demand for precious metal is shifting towards silver. It is expected that India will export 30% less gold than a year ago. Asian markets of precious metals are waiting for some news from Europe: any disappointment may cause a wave of sales. More analysts start focusing on the current situation in China - the 2nd biggest consumer of precious metals. Despite positive data on China’s manufacturing production, Chinese stock indexes have lost 30% of their value since this summer. Housing prices have declined as well.
It is said that the “housing bubble” may burst at any moment, thus causing many problems, including the collapse of the lending system, which is estimated at $7.8 trillion. If the Chinese authorities fail to work out a “safety cushion”, it will probably result in a sharp economic slowdown and the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan.
European and US stocks rallied. Oil futures gained 4.83%.
· EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR 2,369.07 +1.35%
· FTSE 100 Index 5,548.06 +1.08%
· Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index DAX 6,055.27 +1.41%
· DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 11,913.62 +0.89%
· S&P 500 INDEX 1,254.19 +1.29%
· NASDAQ Composite Index 2,699.44 +2.35%
In the morning the Japanese market lost 0.4% while the Korean one gained 0.5%.
Forecast. According to the Department of Commodity Trading, ,today gold may test $1665/oz. Silver is expected to try consolidating above the level 32.1.
Tatiana Dementieva
