The price of the Arabica coffee futures is reported to have come close to a major psychological level of $1 per pound. At this point, there have been no major changes in the fundamental factors driving the coffee market and coffee prices worldwide.
Global Import Data Indicate Slow Growth
The recent analysis conducted by the Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy indicates slow import growth in major coffee-consuming countries.
At the same time, the inventories in those countries are still increasing:
The October export figures indicate an overall export decline mainly due to Vietnam (Robusta):
The major bearish factors:
Another (4th) year of oversupply is expected.
Brazil will probably harvest a more abundant coffee harvest this and next year.
The global consumption of coffee is declining and lagging behind the global production of coffee.
Columbia is reviving its coffee production industry.
The Brazilian Real has been relatively weak over the last 5 years, which favors Brazilian exports.
The major bullish factors:
Higher demand for Robusta
The London stocks are at their lows:
Another bullish factor to consider is the risk of poor harvests in Central America due to diseased coffee plants.
