Over the next 5 years, the United States will dominate the global market of crude oil. Up to 80% of the global oil demand growth will be covered by American oil companies, Bloomberg reports with reference to the International Energy Agency.
It seems like the OPEC won’t be able to resist American oil producers anymore even if they quit the so-called OPEC+ agreement. American shale oil is expected to make up over 50% over the production and export growth. By 2023, non-OPEC oil producers will have grown by 5,2 million barrels a day all the way up to 63,3 million barrels a day. At the same time, OPEC nations are expected to increase their production only by 750K b/d. Venezuela is expected to become the key deterrent since its production capacities are nearly frozen by the local economic crisis.
In 5 years, the daily oil production in the United States is expected to increase by 2,7 million barrels up to 12,2 million barrels a day. The American export of crude oil is expected to increase by more than 100% all the way up to 49 million b/d. the IEA predicts.
China is expected to stay the world’s biggest oil consumer. The global demand for crude oil is expected to increase up to 104,7 million b/d.
At the same time, the experts warn that higher production will definitely require more investments in the industry. Because of oilfield aging, the daily production is 3 million b/s lower, which corresponds to the amount of crude oil produced in the North Sea. By 2023, the local production capacities are expected to drop down to the lowest level since 2007.
At the same time, the OPEC nations have to admit that their rivals are becoming major players in the global market. By the way, the OPEC+ agreement will expire in late 2018.
