The two years’ period of moderately high oil prices is about to be over, the International Energy Agency assumes. They say that the global supply is likely to exceed the global demand, which will push down oil prices, may be even to the levels of 2014.
The published EIA report reads that non-OPEC oil-exporting nations not participating in the OPEC+ deal are expected to boost their total oil production by as much as 1,8 million barrels a day while the global demand is expected to grow only by 1,4 million barrels a day at best. It’s interesting to note that the lion’s share of the production increase is expected to be made by American shale oil companies. By the way they have already outperformed Saudi Arabia – 10,25 million b/d against 10.1 million b/d. They are expected to outperform even Russia with its 10,9 million b/d by the end of 2018.
The thing is that American shale oil producers have considerably reduced their production costs and now enjoy another wave of growth, and the wave may end up being so incredible that it will be able to reach the global demand growth in 2018. If that’s the case, that could be a cold shower for the OPEC+ participants losing their market share and expecting more favorable oil prices this year.
Some experts say that while smelling a possible market crash, those OPEC+ players start violating the agreement. For instance, Russia oil companies have cut their production just by 270K b/d instead of agreed 300K b/d, which is around 88% of the promised production cuts. Iraq have cut their production only by 34% of agreed figures. But for the production crisis in Venezuela , the thing could have been even worse for the OPEC+ participants.
Anyways, the EIA warns that the current market situation resembles the one seen right before the oil market crash seen in 2014. That’s why they are bearish on crude oil.
