Over the next 5 years, the world may suffer from 5 “energy tsunamis”, which may trigger a major crash in the global market of crude oil. This is what Bloomberg says, with reference to Thierry Lepercq, Executive Vice President of Engie.
According to Mr. Lepercq, who is in charge of supervision of the Research & Technologies and of the Innovation at Engie, the international market of crude oil is going to feel increasing pressure coming from cheaper solar energy and other clean energy sources. At the same time, the growing amount of electrocars and “smart homes” as well as cheaper accumulators are going to make things even worse for crude oil, making it a less consumable commodity.
Even if the demand for crude oil grows continuously up to the year of 2025, after that the price may crash all the way down to $10/b driven by a significant drop in the global demand for crude oil, Mr. Lepercq says.
He underlines the fact that the amount of electrocars used around the world is growing at an unseen rate, thereby following the J curve, when a tiny drop is followed by a huge rally. As the motor industry evolves to create better electrocars capable of going 500 kilometers without recharging the battery, and more of those charging networks emerge around the globe, governments will gradually start ousting vehicles running on diesel and gasoline. Since the crude oil refined to create gasoline and diesel accounts for the lion’s share of the global demand, the described scenario will lead to a considerable drop in the demand of crude oil, thereby leading to huge oversupply and ultra-low prices – $10/b and even lower.
At the same time, the expert says that the cost of a megawatt-hour may well go down to $10 within the next few years. In this case, producing hydrogen will be cheaper than liquefying gas. This will create opportunities to deliver cheap energy to consumers living in distant places.
He pays special attention to the innovative technology created by Kawasaki Heavy Industries. This technology is all about a tanker to transport liquefied hydrogen from Australia to Japan. Over the next 10 years, they will create many of such tankers.
As for Engie, by 2018, they are going to spend some 1.5 billion euros on innovative technologies, including those producing liquefied hydrogen, used in the construction of smart buildings, and so much more.
