Yesterday, the WTI crude futures for December delivery rebounded from the 96 level it had been hanging around for 5 months. At this point, the price is fluctuating around $97.9 per barrel.
According to the Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy, there are several key reasons for the recent weakness of the international market of crude oil.
The major bearish driver was the EIA’s recent weekly report. According to it, the US crude inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels up to 279.8 million barrels of crude oil. This is above the most pessimistic forecasts.
The list of other major factors includes the recent talks between the USA and Iran, the program of controlling the chemical weapons on Libya, the US budget issue and higher oil production in Canada along with higher oil inventories in China. These factors altogether exert extra pressure on oil prices.
At the same time, there are several bullish factors that prevent oil prices form collapsing.
In particular, the international oil supply is up by 625 000 barrels a day down to 91 million barrels a day. These are September figures. The OPEC decreased its oil supply below 30 million barrels a day fro the first time in 2 years. The current figures are some 29,9 million barrels a day.
At the same time, the non-OPEC supply is around 54.1 million barrels a day.
The global economic growth is likely to remain almost unchanged – somewhere around 2.9% and 3.5% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.
Trading Recommendations
The Option Trading department of Masterforex-V Academy shorted a put option on September 24th. At this point, it is covered by 80%. The trade can be closed in order to take profit. The income is $180 per contract.
