Production and stocks.
According to the weekly report published by the EIA, the US crude oil stocks increased by 1.3 million barrels up to 361,3 million barrels. The report says that the current stocks are above the average for this time of the year.
Gasoline stocks are up by 7.4 million barrels, which is above the average as well.
Major market drivers:
Bearish factors:
· Record-high oil production in the USA (the highest level in 20 years- over 7 million barrels a day).
· Higher amount of jobless claims in the USA (+4K up to 371K).
· Higher global oil production amid declining consumption.
· An increase in the US oil inventories.
Bullish Factors:
· China’s external trade surplus increased from $19.63bn up to $31,6bn in December 2012, thereby exceeding all expectations.
· Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, reduced its oil production 5% down to 9.025 million barrels a day in December as the local authorities were afraid of excessive supply.
The charts below, courtesy of , reflect the current state of affairs in the market of crude oil with a glance at seasonality.
The experts say that the market will probably stay flattish, with a chance of going down to the bottom of the range.
