For 2 weeks before August 2nd crude oil was mostly declining in value. However, on August 1st the trading week started with a rally. Probably it was caused by President Obama’s speech. In advance of the X day the US president informed the world about the agreement reached between his administration and the Congress on the debt ceiling problem. The default scenario was canceled.
The US won’t see any technical default. The news instantly reassured the markets. On Monday at NYMEX the September WTI futures gained 1,2% or $1.15/b.
According to the Department of Masterforex-V trading system , after breaking below the sloping channel the price completed an H4 upswing 89,61-100,65. If there is a downward FZR H4, the price is likely to see further decline, with the closest support around 94,75. Otherwise, a rally will be resumed through increasing the wave level. 101,87 will become the closest resistance level.
· On Friday (July 29th) at NYMEX the WTI futures cost $ 95,70/b. On Monday the trading session started at $ 96,85/b, or $1.15 higher.
· At ICE Futures, the London-based exchange, the September crude futures (Brent) gained 1,25% or +$1,46, thus reaching $118,20/b.
· On the night of August 1st (European time) the US Congress and Obama’s administration finally agreed on the debt limit issue.
According to Howard Friend, chief analyst for Mig Bank, it is too early to talk about the details of the agreement but Mr. Obama is sure that within 10 years the austerity plan will help to save 1 trillion dollars.
On Monday Russia published its reports on the Urals crude oil for the first 7 months of 2011. The average price for the period is $109.17/b.
According to Alexander Sakovich, an expert of the Russian Ministry of Finance, the average price for the first 7 months of 2010 was equal to $75.67/b, which means that oil gained 44.3%. In July the average price of Urals reached $115,29/b, which is 55 cents higher than in July 2010.
On Monday in New York the oil futures reached $ 97,29/b.
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The global market of crude oil will:
· decline
· rally
· be uncertain
