Ivan Zhigalov
As you have already noticed, the common European currency is still losing value against the US Dollar. It happens day by day. Yesterday, on September 29th, the currency pair declined from the intraday high of 1.2714 down to the low of 1.2693. Previously, the recovery up to 1.2714 was caused by relatively stable data coming from the Eurozone earlier on that day.
Spain ’s consumer price index improved from -0,5% up to -0,2% while the Spanish retail sales index increased from -0,2% up to +0,4%. Portugal ’s business and consumer confidence indexes also improved from 0.6 up to 0.7 points and from -25.5 up to -24.6 points respectively.
Meanwhile, Germany’s CPI remained stable at zero percent and 0,8% m/m/ and y/y respectively.
Italian 10-year bonds - Buoni del Tesoro Poliannuali (BTP) – saw its yield boosting from 2.39% up to 2.45% yesterday. This was followed by a retracement since the USA released strong economic figures as well.
EURUSD Prospects
According to trading experts, who are members of Masterforex-V Academy, the current situation in the H1 chart of EURUSD looks as follows:
The mid-term tendency is clearly bearish. The downtrend started from 1.2994. Since then, the price has been developing a 3-wave count of wave level H1 or higher. The 3rd wave of the count has been going down from 1.200. It is a 5-wave count itself. All 5 sub-waves are completed. Still, the experts from Masterforex-V Academy warn that the move started at 1.2900 may be elongated. However, in order to accomplish this task, the price will have to break and consolidate below1.2668 and the local low of 1.2663.
Alternatively, in order to suspend the downtrend and to start a stronger recovery, EURUSD will have to break and consolidate above 1.2754, which is a major MF pivot. If this is the case, the next level of resistance to watch is the top of the descending MF sloping channel defending the entire downtrend (it is shown in the graph below).
Ivan Zhigalov
