Yuriy Ukazkin
According to the latest report on the situation in Europe published by the International Monetary Fund, the flight of capital from the region is accelerating. Yet the pace will keep growing if the European authorities fail to introduce timely and efficient anti-crisis measures. The flight of capital form the eurozone will have negative consequences for the currency union. The fragmentation of the eurozone financial system will only escalated the instability in capital markets.
The capital seems to be flowing north. In particular, Spanish banks lost some €300bn from June 2011 till June 2012. The risks are growing for the entire EU. In late 2013, European banks may lose up to €2200bn in deposits. Yet this is the basic scenario. In the worst-case scenario, they may lose up to €3500bn.
At the same time, Standard & Poor's, a major international rating agency, has cut Spain ’s long-term credit rating by 2 steps from "BBB+" down to "BBB-", with a negative forecast. The short-term forecast is down from "A-2" to "A-3" as well.
Forex.
The chart below, courtesy of , reflects the current state of affairs in the market of EURUSD. The currency pair is recovering from the downtrend. The closest levels of resistance are 1.2901 and 1.2939. However, we may expect the price to resume the downtrend in the short run.
Alex von Stachelkopf, аналитик отдела "Форекс, курс евро", трейдер кафедры СРП Академии трейдинга Masterforex-V
Yuriy Ukazkin
