Tatiana Kashyrskaia
On Jan 1st 2011 Hungary became a new chairman of the EU for the next 6 months.
At the same time France started presiding over G20. In the near-term perspective France is to host the forthcoming G8 summit. Consequently, 2 major centers of global politics and economy appeared in Europe. On the one hand it improves the international image of the Old World. On the other hand France and Hungary may have disagreements on a range of major issues. So, what may cause disputes?
First of all, what goals have the presiding countries set?
Experts from the Association of Traders and Investors of Western Europe (under of Forex and stock trading) assume that France suggests a series of global-scale reforms:
· Fundamental reform of the entire international monetary system
· Establishing strict regulation of economic and monetary policies around the world
· Toughening measures to control international money flows
· Taking steps to stabilize agricultural prices around the world
In other worlds Paris is going to initiate and head a series of global reforms (some of which are unlikely to favor the rest of Europe)
The experts draw your attention to the fact that Hungary sets a range of near-term tasks aimed at the development of the European Union:
· Maintaining the economic growth in the EU countries
· Equalizing to the full the levels of their social development
· Searching for the ways to solve the demographic problem in Europe, where the mean age (as well as the pressure on the EU’s pension fund) grows every year.
· Ensuring the energy safety of the continent (first of all, reducing the dependency on the natural gas supplies from Russia)
· Expanding the Schengen area ( it is planned to include Romania and Bulgaria)
· Expanding the Euro zone
· Holding a EU summit within the scope of the Eastern Partnership (EaP)
· The long-expected and delayed entrance of Turkey into the EU
Many of these ambitious plans proposed by Budapest may well be out of France’s line and even contradict its grandiose plans.
What are Hungary’s current weak sides?
However it shouldn’t be forgotten that:
1. Since the Lisbon Treaty (the constitutional basis of European Union) took effect, the presiding countries have got only representative functions. That is why all the plans proposed by Hungary may still remain unfulfilled if they are not supported by the other 27 EU members at the forthcoming summit.
2. Hungary doesn’t enjoy high prestige in the EU.
· Hungary’s “draconian” mass-media law works against its international image. It allows the government to toughen the control of all the local mass media, which caused a wave of criticism in the US and European media.
· Hungary is blamed for being almost a one-party state. The right-wing party Fidesz enjoys the majority in the parliament and can change the constitution.
· Hungary’s economic situation is considered the worst in the EU
Nicolas Sarkozy, as the president of the country presiding over G20, can reduce to nothing any initiative introduced by Hungary.
What opportunities does a country presiding over the EU have?
It should be noted that these opportunities are rather modest and mainly concern Hungary’s status in the world:
It is an opportunity for Hungary to improve its international image
1. It gets €80B to hold 250 events
2. It is an opportunity for Hungary to try and solve some of its internal problems. For example, by offering to include neighboring Romania in the Shengen area Hungary wants to help its citizen living in Transylvania by giving them a chance to communicate with their relatives in Romania more freely.
What are the issues that may cause the strongest disputes between France and Hungary?
experts assume that despite the obvious difference in opportunities and abilities, the 2 countries may start a prolonged “struggle” over some painful problems, including the following ones:
· Talks on the EU budget for 2014-2020, which are to start in the short run. It will be extremely difficult to coordinate the interests of France, Great Britain and Germany with those of less well-off countries like Hungary.
· The famous entrance of Turkey into the EU. Last year the Hungarian Foreign Minister Janosh Martoni said that during its presidency in the EU Hungary would do its best to help Turkey enter the EU. At the same time some countries of the Old World, France in particular, are rather skeptical about this idea. France is definitely not eager to accept 70 million Muslims. Moreover, the external policy pursued by the current Turkish government is far from being popular with either Paris, Berlin or London. Too independent Ankara, which no longer strives to enter the EU and even claims to be the leader in the Middle East scares Western Europe rather than attracting it. So, the initiative is sure to face strong opposition.
Anyway, within the next 6 month we are going to witness a rather interesting confrontation revealing ambitions and opportunities of various countries of the Old World. Different international institutions and unions will show which one of them are more perspective and viable.
experts together with “Market Leader” offer you to take part in a survey by answering the following question:
Will Hungary’s presidency initiate a new political trend in the EU?
· Yes, it will
· No, it won’t
Tatiana Kashyrskaia
