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Monday, 19 August 20:25 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

Near-Term Predictions for Russian Ruble by FortFS


On Monday, the Russian Ruble exchange rate increased by 0,9% up and reached 64 rubles per dollar. The Russian currency managed to regain a part of Friday's loss. Russian assets (currency and bonds) had gained support from a exposure reduction slowdown coupled with higher oil prices. 
 
Monday's tax figures turned out to be strong. According to Bloomberg, the total amount of tax payments replenishing the budget reached 2.62 trillion rubles.
 
Another factor supporting the Russian assets turned out to be the end of the investigation related to Russia's thread in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections. For those of you who don't know, a group of investigators accused Donald Trump of some conspiracy with involving Russia. The end of the investigation decreased the tensions and the downward pressure on Russian assets in general. 
 

At this point, those market players who invest in Russian assets are currently interested in auctions held by the Russian Ministry of Finance. At the same time, some Russian experts say that after the period of tax payments that replenished the Russian budget quite a lot, there are very few factors remaining when it comes to backing a stronger ruble. However, the influence of the USA's aggressive rhetorics on the Russian Ruble is still strong. According to ProFinance, the Russian national currency nearly lost the support of exporters after they had to pay yet another tax, but the ruble may still be purchased by foreign investment funds. So, the demand for oil seems to be one of the very few factors backing the ruble and other Russian assets at this point and in the neat future.
 
The current policy pursued by the Federal Reserve is now helping the ruble a bit. However, the currency market interventions pursued by the Russian central bank are playing against it, FortFS reports. This means that those who are now playing against the central bank are likely to give up at some point in the near future, probably in April. While some experts expect the USDRUB exchange rate it fluctuate within the scope of the 63,5-65 range, Sberbank Asset Management experts name a tighter range -  64-65 rubles per dollar. 

 

 

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Text: Near-Term Prospects of Russian Ruble by FortFS
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