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Monday, 20 August 06:33 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

Crude Oil Goes Above $80/b, Morgan Stanley Improves Oil Forecast


On Thursday, May 17th, Brent oil exceeded $80/b for the first time in 3,5 years. The last time the price reached this level was on November 25th, 2014.

In particular, the ICE Brent oil futures (London) for July delivery reached $80,18/b. This was a 0,9% gain over the last 24 hours, 8% since early May, and 19,5% since January 1st, 2018.
 
At this point, international experts name a number of reasons pushing oil prices higher. For starters, this is about shrining U.S. oil inventories (minus 1,4 barrels of crude oil and 3,8 million barrels of gasoline for the past week alone) as well as the sanctions the USA is going to impose on Iran in the near future after the former quit the nuclear deal. Another reason is the fact that the oil production in Venezuela has been going down for quite a while. At the same time, hedge funds have been actively betting on higher oil prices amid decreasing oil inventories in OECD states (all the way down to the lows of 2015). It seems that the decline in the global demand for crude oil predicted by the IEA coupled with higher oil production by non-OPEC producers has failed so far to convince international investors that there will be no oil deficit in the near future.
 

Still, chances are the market panic vanishes over time. Experts say there is a huge gap between paper oil and physical oil (oil futures and actual crude oil). To be more specific, there is a major imbalance in favor of paper oil. Still, according to a Reuters source, we may well see the market cleaning up shortly.

Still, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America anticipate higher oil prices over the long term. They
havealreadyimprovedtheir 2020 oilforecastsfrom 65 dollarsperbarrelallthewayupto 90 dollarsperbarrel. The truth is, they have raised the bar due to some tech factors. The thing is, there will be new fuel standards introduced for sea vessels in 2020 amid an increased demand for diesel and aviation fuel while oil refineries cannot handle the increased demand of distillates.

 

 

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Investment Banks Raise Their Oil Forecasts

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Publication date: 02 August 12:00 PM

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Publication date: 16 July 09:58 AM

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Publication date: 05 July 11:47 AM

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Publication date: 27 June 11:27 AM

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Publication date: 09 June 10:26 PM

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Publication date: 29 May 01:41 PM

USA Outpaces Russia to Become World’s Biggest Oil Producer

In March 2018, the United States outpaced Russia in terms of oil production. This means that the USA is now the biggest producer of crude oil in the world.

Publication date: 24 May 11:26 AM

Oil Prices At $79/b, Russian Ruble Still Weak. Why?

On Tuesday, May 15th, Brent oil reached $79/b. Strange as it may seem, the Russian Ruble hasn’t reacted to this so far, even though this always has been a positive sign for Russia’s national economy and currency heavily reliant on crude oil prices. Moreover, the currency has been going slightly down for a while despite being backed by higher oil prices.

Publication date: 15 May 01:19 PM

Russia Isn’t Interested In OPEC+ Anymore

Right in advanced of the forthcoming OPEC+ summit some experts doubt that Russia is still interested in the agreement. The strategic objectives of the OPEC+ deal are almost reached. The imbalance in the global oil market has almost been eliminated. The cost of a barrel of Brent oil has increased by more than 100% since late 2016. At this point Brent oil is trading above 70 dollars per barrel. On Q1 2018, the OPEC made 400 million dollars a day more than 12 months before.

Publication date: 28 April 07:57 AM