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Monday, 18 June 07:42 (GMT -05:00)

Foreign exchange market

Euro, Pound, Yen, and Franc Prospects for the first Week of October

The analysts working for NordFX have published another weekly forecast (October 2nd – 6th) for such currency pairs as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF.




At first, they analyzed last week’s market dynamics (September 25th-29th):
EUR/USD remained under the pressure coming the Fed’s decision to raise the interest rate 4 times next year. The results of the recent parliamentary election in Germany also turned out to be against the common European currency. Even though Angela Merkel’s party won, this wasn’t a confident victory. As predicted by the experts, the Euro lost over 230 points against the U.S. Dollar in the middle of the week but later on, the common currency managed to recover a bit by rallying up to 1,1815.
GBP/USD dropped a little, which means that the U.S. Dollar strengthened against the British Pound by around 100 points.
As for USD/JPY, NordFX was right again by predicting a retracement followed by another rally. However, we must confess that the retracement wasn’t as deep as expected. On Monday, the currency pair dropped down to 111,50, which was followed by a move up to 113,25 (on Wednesday). The currency pair ended the trading week at 112,50, which means that the uptrend is cooling down.
As for USD/CHF, most experts as well as the D1 chart analysis predicted a new local high around 0,9770, and the forecast did actually manifest itself. This price level was reached on Wednesday, and the local trend reversed after that. The currency pair ended the week 20 pips below the starting price.
Now let’s proceed to the forecast for the current trading week by the analysts working for the leading brokers and banks. According to NordFX analyst Roman Boutko has made the following conclusion:
EUR/USD. The situation is unclear which is why experts are divided – 50% of them are bullish and 505 of them are bearish. The trending indicator applied to the H4 chart shows 30% of red marks and 70% of green ones. As for the same indicator applied to the D1 chart, everything looks the opposite. The green marks dominate H4 oscillators as well.
The chart analysis predicts that the currency pair is probably going to test 1.2100 over the next 2-3 weeks. After that, the price may well reverse and aim for 1.1660 as the key support target. The forthcoming ECB meeting (scheduled for October 4th) and the Non-Farm Payrolls (USA) may seriously influence the currency pair this trading week. By the way, they expect the NFP stats crash from 156K all the way down to 98K jobs, or even 75K jobs.
Traditionally, this means a weaker dollar, but not always since big-scale players have been playing against this supposition for a while, and that’s why many traders have been suffering serious financial losses.
GBP/USD. 55% of the experts predict a downtrend. The bearish sentiment is backed by trending indicators applied to H4. As for the D1 chart, it allows the experts to expect a move down to the bottom of the mid-term ascending sloping channel by mid-fall. The closest goal is 1.3040. The closest level of resistance is 1.3500.




20% of the expert community expect the currency pair to raise up to 1,3600. Another 25% expect a flat market. All the indicators and oscillators applied to the D1 chart are neutral.
USD/JPY. 55% of the experts think that the currency pair has entered the correction phase. 25% of the oscillators confirm that. As a result, they expect the price to temporarily retrace down to the 111,00 – 111,50 area. The rest of the experts don’t expect any retracement and predict a further rally up to 114,50, which is the top of the mid-term horizontal channel. The bullish bias is backed the early parliamentary election in Japan scheduled for October 22nd.  


USD/CHF. The experts expect the price to move within the 0,9585 – 0,9770 range. It should be noted that 1/3 of the oscillators indicate that the market is overbought. This may lead to a move down to the bottom of the range, followed by a rebound in the upward direction. This is expected by 60% of the experts and backed by the analysis of H4 and D1 charts.


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