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Thursday, 17 August 13:21 (GMT -05:00)



Business And Politics News

Stratfor Gave Prediction for the next 3 Months


The other day, Stratfor released another quarterly prediction for the global geopolitical situation.
 

 

 

 

According to the report, the USA will try to settle the nuclear dispute with North Korea. Europe will be waiting for the results of the presidential election in France. Russia will dive even deeper into the local problems. The OPEC will extend the Vienna Accord aimed at cutting oil production.
 
USA
 

 

Trade is expected to become one of the key issues in the American agenda over the mentioned period. To be more specific, Trump’s administration will try to explain to the Americans the newly-developed strategy to fight any currency manipulation abroad, which implies some trade regulation toughening and the reconsidering their attitude to the NAFTA. At the same time, Stratfor experts believe that Trump’s unclear stance will force America’s key trade partners seek tighter trade relations with other countries. However, some of them will retain their commitment to cooperating with the USA in the field of security and investments in order to avoid trade sanctions. China is expected to be one of such countries. China has been actively benefiting from its economic growth as well as the tensions between the USA and North Korea. 

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At the same time, they think that President Trump and his administration will do their best to implement at least secondary sanctions against North Korea. For that reason, the USA may provide South Korea with considerable military support to make China interfere with the conflict.
 
Russia and the Middle East
 
The American missile attack on a Syrian airbase aggravated the situation in Syria, increasing the risk of direct military clashes. Still, Stratfor experts believe that Moscow will be using the situation to urge Donald Trump for negotiations. Russia is unlikely to trust the USA and Europe anymore. Russian politicians will probably have to focus on numerous internal problems.
 
OPEC
 
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are expected to back oil production cuts in the region for 6 more months. If oil prices stabilize, Venezuela may well settle some of its urgent financial problems. However, Venezuela will still be facing a default in the second half of 2017.
 

 

European Union

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European leaders my face some challenges threatening to undermine their status. At the same time, all eyes are on the results of the presidential election in France. The result will show whether there will be a Frexit referendum. Italy is another country thinking about quitting the EU. That’s why the results of the presidential election in France may decide the fate of the entire union. In the worst case scenario, Europe will face serious shocks, which will also affect global financial markets, Stratfor experts predict.

 

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Trump’s Policies Make USA Lose Their Leading Position in the West

More and more international experts are concerned about Donald Trump’s policies. Some of them are concerned that because of him and his actions, the USA may lose their leading role in the Western world.  

 

 

According to Fareed Zakaria, political expert, CNN host and columnist for The Washington Post, Trump’s recent political decisions have made the European Union so united that Putin could never have dreamed of. Even though he is not going to make the Western world collapse, the USA may still lose the number-one status in the Western world.

Publication date: 31 July 12:09 PM

Does China Oust Russia From Central Asia?

As the situation in Afghanistan is getting worse, this is raising a lot of concerns in the international expert community. The Islamic terrorist threat may spread from there to Russian and China, they say.

 

 
According to a Norwegian observer for Dagbladet, there exist 5 countries in Central Asia that can be seen as potential threats to Russia and China. The thing is, the Islamic terrorism may well spread from those countries to their neighbors. They say that Afghanistan is now the biggest potential threat since the amount of armed conflicts in the country are getting more and more frequent and tough. As Taliban (the local terrorist organization) is said to be sponsored and suppled with arm and ammo, the USA seems to be putting the blame for this on Russia.
Publication date: 29 July 11:53 AM

China Invests Heavily In Africa

You probably know that has been investing in a number of countries of strategical importance. There is a lot of African countries on the list. According to several observers, Chinese banks have given such countries over 77 billion euros since 2000.

 

 
Not so long ago, there was a documentary broadcast on the national TV. The documentary is about a railway line in Kenya built by China Road and Bridge Corporation. It praises Chinese engineers and tells the viewer that the Chinese government is ready to support African countries on their way to economic growth.
Publication date: 24 July 11:46 PM

Chinese Economy Is Way Stronger Than Trump Thinks

The Chinese economy has got much stronger. It can now even be compared to the American one, which is viewed to be the world’s strongest economy. Washington clearly underestimates Beijing when saying that the China has been flourishing in the international markets exclusively at the expense of unfair trade.

 

 
Publication date: 23 July 10:48 AM

British Start Getting Disappointed with Brexit, Soros Says

Last year’s Brexit referendum has become a major challenge for the British government, George Soros says. He says that more and more British citizens start getting disappointed with the Brexit.

 

 
The world-famous financier and CEO of Soros Fund Management assumes that now the economic reality starts revealing the real state of affairs and debunk their delusions related to the happy living outside of the European Union. More than 12 months ago, the advocates of the Brexit scenario were trying to persuade people that this choice won’t affect people’s standards of living. Well, since then, the government has been trying to implement this promise at the expense of increasing the internal debt.
Publication date: 14 July 02:40 AM

Two Reasons Why Russia Keeps Losing Influence Over Post-Soviet States

After the USSR ceased to exist, the Kremlin was counting on retaining their influence in the region. However, the truth is that Russia as the major successor to the USSR has been losing its influence over the remaining post-soviet states. There are 2 reasons for that.

 

 
According to the related report recently published by private American analytic company Stratfor, there is a range of new tendencies making it difficult for Russia to stay influential in the post-soviet region, especially when it comes to Ukraine. The two major reasons for that are believed to be the declining role of the Russian language in the region as well as the existing threats of mass protest inside Russia itself.
Publication date: 06 July 01:42 PM

Business with China: New Reality after Blocking Yandex and VK in Ukraine

Ukrainian President Petr Poroshenko has expanded the list of sanctions against individuals and legal entities from Russia. To be more specific, Ukraine imposed sanctions on several Russian online companies, including Yandex, which is Russia’s biggest IT company, as well as some other popular web services like VK, Odnoklassniki, and Mail.ru Group. According to the presidential decree, Ukrainian Internet providers are forbidden to grant access to those blacklisted websites.

Publication date: 06 July 01:13 AM

China Doesn’t Need Russian Gas and Pipelines

Don’t you remember how a couple of years ago Gazprom cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine a number of times. By the way, Ukraine alone used to buy 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas back then. Now Ukraine buys no natural gas form Russia at all. Apparently, Moscow keeps on looking for other outlets. There has been a lot of buzz about China as a new big outlet for Russian natural gas and crude oil. It turns out that two new pipelines should have transferred to China some 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year. Yet, this was the maximum amount, and it couldn’t clearly make up for the export of natural gas to Ukraine.

Publication date: 05 July 11:15 AM

Mass Media on Forthcoming Trump-Putin Meeting

For those of you who don’t know, the first official meeting between Donald trump and Vladimir Putin has been confirmed. It’s planned for July 7, during the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

 

 
Some observers say that the White House did the Kremlin a favor by being the first one confirming the official meeting during the G20 summit. This announcement helped the sided to get of the rumors around the situation and helped Moscow to save face in the Russian media space.
Publication date: 05 July 06:24 AM

Putin and Trump Part Ways

According to The Daily Telegraph observer Con Coughlin, even if Donald Trump used to seek ways to improve the relations with Russia, today he is probably going to really abandon this idea. The thing is that not so long ago, the U.S. hit a Syrian fight jet, the one belonging to Bashar Asad’s troop. Since Putin and Asad are allies, this fact is definitely going to affect the process of improving the U.S.-Russia relations, and probably suspend this process for the near future.
 
Publication date: 29 June 11:50 PM