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Wednesday, 24 May 05:37 (GMT -05:00)



Business And Politics News

Stratfor Gave Prediction for the next 3 Months


The other day, Stratfor released another quarterly prediction for the global geopolitical situation.
 

 

 

 

According to the report, the USA will try to settle the nuclear dispute with North Korea. Europe will be waiting for the results of the presidential election in France. Russia will dive even deeper into the local problems. The OPEC will extend the Vienna Accord aimed at cutting oil production.
 
USA
 

 

Trade is expected to become one of the key issues in the American agenda over the mentioned period. To be more specific, Trump’s administration will try to explain to the Americans the newly-developed strategy to fight any currency manipulation abroad, which implies some trade regulation toughening and the reconsidering their attitude to the NAFTA. At the same time, Stratfor experts believe that Trump’s unclear stance will force America’s key trade partners seek tighter trade relations with other countries. However, some of them will retain their commitment to cooperating with the USA in the field of security and investments in order to avoid trade sanctions. China is expected to be one of such countries. China has been actively benefiting from its economic growth as well as the tensions between the USA and North Korea. 

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At the same time, they think that President Trump and his administration will do their best to implement at least secondary sanctions against North Korea. For that reason, the USA may provide South Korea with considerable military support to make China interfere with the conflict.
 
Russia and the Middle East
 
The American missile attack on a Syrian airbase aggravated the situation in Syria, increasing the risk of direct military clashes. Still, Stratfor experts believe that Moscow will be using the situation to urge Donald Trump for negotiations. Russia is unlikely to trust the USA and Europe anymore. Russian politicians will probably have to focus on numerous internal problems.
 
OPEC
 
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are expected to back oil production cuts in the region for 6 more months. If oil prices stabilize, Venezuela may well settle some of its urgent financial problems. However, Venezuela will still be facing a default in the second half of 2017.
 

 

European Union

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European leaders my face some challenges threatening to undermine their status. At the same time, all eyes are on the results of the presidential election in France. The result will show whether there will be a Frexit referendum. Italy is another country thinking about quitting the EU. That’s why the results of the presidential election in France may decide the fate of the entire union. In the worst case scenario, Europe will face serious shocks, which will also affect global financial markets, Stratfor experts predict.

 

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Macron Will Shift the Balance of Powers in the Normandy Format in Favor of Ukraine

For those of you who don’t know, the so-called Normandy format was created to resolve the difficult situation in the East of Ukraine. France is one of the participants. As you know, Emmanuel Macron has recently won the presidential election in France. This means that he is going to become the successor to Francois Hollande as President of France, participating in the Normandy format as the French representative.

 

 
Publication date: 17 May 08:48 AM

The Price of Defeating North Korea May Be Too High

These days, more and more experts start talking about a possible war against North Korea. However, they also say that the price of defeating North Korea may be too high for the USA and its allies.

 

 
For now, North Korea seems to have made considerable progress in creating nuclear arms, which is something that worries the entire world, especially as North Korea keeps on making harsh statements and threatening the USA, South Korea and Japan. The recent test launch of ballistic missiles in North Korea are now treated as wake-up call and real threat. Theoretically, there is a threat that North Korea may hit American military facilities located in Japan and South Korea. As the US Navy is moving closer to the Korean peninsula, international observers are talking about the possibility of another armed conflict between North and South Korea, even though both of them are still at war with each other.
Publication date: 26 April 01:16 PM

Sixteen Structural Reforms Is the Cost of the Next IMF Tranche to Ukraine

Anders Aslund, a Swedish economist and a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, commented on the current and future cooperation between the IMF and Ukraine. He claims that Kiev will have to implement at least 16 structural reforms in order to get another tranche from the International Monetary Fund. He also explained why the IMF is still cooperating with Ukraine.

Publication date: 26 April 11:01 AM

Putin Underestimated Ukrainians When Invading Ukraine, Atlantic Council

American private institution Atlantic Council assumes that Vladimir Putin underestimated the Ukrainians when invading Ukraine.
 

 

They say that the hybrid war started by Russia in Ukraine has been going on for the 4th year. There were times when nobody believed that Ukraine would hold on even for 4 weeks. The thing is, the Crimea was annexed without any fight, which made international experts believe that Ukraine was weak and completely dependent on Russia. This stand point used to be popular in Moscow as well. Some Russian politicians expected a complete victory in a couple of months, but back than Ukraine was vulnerable after the revolution, which lead to the end of Yanukovich’s regime, while the temporary government was lacking legitimacy to seriously resist Russia. Back then, Russia got a chance to occupy the rest of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin seemed to be encouraged by the success in the Crimea.
Publication date: 26 April 08:37 AM

Experts on Statements Made by Russian Officials about Russian Economic Recovery

International experts have commented on the recent statements made by several Russian officials about some economic recovery in Russia. They say that the weak economic growth isn’t backed by higher standards of living in the Russian Federation.

Publication date: 23 April 02:05 AM

USA Today Names the Reasons Why the USA Is Concerned about the Situation in Ukraine

USA Today has named the reasons why the United states should be concerned about the armed conflict in the East of Ukraine.

 

Previously, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson asked his European colleagues why American taxpayers should be concerned about the situation in Ukraine. The answer came from his French colleague, who said that the United States should be interested in a strong Europe. On top of that, there are some other reasons why the USA shouldn’t stop thinking about Ukraine.

Publication date: 21 April 12:00 PM

Trump's Plan on Syria: Russia to Stay in Syria, Asad Has to Leave

At this point, several media sources, including Associated Press, report they know the details of the offer brought by Rex Tillerson to Moscow during his official visit. Now, everyone seems to be wondering what exactly Rex Tillerson and Sergey Lavrov discussed during their meeting in Moscow.
 

 

First of all, the sources claim that the USA is ready to unite forces with Russia to destroy the ISIS once and for all. Secondly, Bashar Asad has to quit anyway. He will be even allowed to go to Russia or Iran to avoid prosecution. Thirdly, a temporary government need to be established in Syria to back stabilization and holding a democratic election in Syria. Russia can stay in Syria to back security but they shouldn’t interfere with the local politics.
Publication date: 18 April 11:34 PM

Today's Russia-US Relations Are Worse Than During Obama’s Administration

At this point, the bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington are even worse than they used to be during Obama’s administration. This is what President Putin thinks on the matter.

 

 
Even though the Russian president thinks so, he hasn’t commented on the details of this degradation in the bilateral relations between the 2 superpowers. He assumes that the level of trust between the United States and the Russian Federation has dropped, especially on the military level.
 
Publication date: 18 April 11:05 PM

Will North Korea Become Another Syria for the USA?

The latest events in Syria made many international observers change their mind regarding President Trump. The current conditions also show that getting rid of North-Korean leader Kim Jong Un may also become a major goal for President Trump.

 

 
The news that U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson suddenly reversed and moved to the Western part of the Pacific Ocean in the direction of the Korean Peninsula attracted the interest of the international community. Given the 59 missiles launched to hit a Syrian airbase a couple of weeks ago, this maneuver of the aircraft carrier does raise a lot of concerns.
Publication date: 18 April 03:29 AM

OPEC's Average Oil Price Raises to $53,67

The average price of a barrel of the crude oil produced by the OPEC is reported to have gone all the way up to $53,67. This is confirmed by the cartel’s official website. This happened yesterday. At this point, the price has retraced a bit and is currently trading around $53,36/b, Market Leader reports.

Publication date: 13 April 07:54 AM