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Tuesday, 30 August 21:12 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

Masterforex-V On Gazprom’s Prospects


 

Earlier this year, Gazprom conducted Investor Day to inform the company’s investors about Gazprom’s prospects. The experts expect moderate production volume. They are still positive about the company’s export of natural gas to Europe.
 
What are the real prospects of the Russian giant? How promising is the company’s stock for investors? Let’s try to answer these questions together with Masterforex-V Academy.

 

 

 

 
Gazprom’s Prospects
 
 According to experts, the good news is that the mark has already taken into account all the negative factors and scenarios. This is reflected by Gazprom’s multipliers for 2011. The risk of further worsening is minimal. At that point, Gazprom’s stock traded with a 50-75% discount as compared to the multipliers.
 
3 years ago, the company’s NG production was 4% below the expected level. Gazprom lowered the production forecast for 2011 and 2012 by 5% and 2% correspondingly. According to the new forecast, the production of natural gas will remain   the same in 2013.
 
At the same time, Gazprom is expected to increase the export of natural gas to ex-USSR states while the domestic demand won’t probably change a lot.
The forecast for the export of natural gas to Europe was positive as well. However, the average price of exported gas was 9% below the expected level mainly at the expense higher oil prices (the price of Urals oil is 28% higher year-over-year).
 
When Will Gazprom’s Stock Stop Its Downtrend?
 
According to the DFWA Department of Masterforex-V Academy, Gazprom’s stock has been declining for several months in a row. Is there the limit to this downfall? Will the stock see further decline? In order
 
In order to answer these questions, let’s look at the chart below. The chart clearly indicates 2 tendencies. The 1sttendency is the senior one. It represents a bullish pattern (the blue arrows). The 2nd (junior) pattern represents a downtrend (the red arrows). The overall background is the crisis started in 2008.
The background is currently favoring the downtrend. Still, there has been no 3rd wave in the upward direction so far. However, it is still probable in the near future. However, the upward potential is moderate (140-150 rubles per share) if to consider the fact that the background is negative.
 
If to consider the junior bearish pattern, wave 3 is currently underway. This means that in the near future we may see Gazprom’s stock declining down to 60-70 rubles per share prior to going in the upward direction.


 

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