03 August 10:22 AM
Last week cocoa price was showing steady upward trend, having reached the new high of 2413.
However, price has failed to set above 2400 and slightly bounced back on Thursday. The reasons of such counter-seasonal growth are supposed to be the following: expectations of money inflow from the central banks, influence of El Nino on yield capacity in West Africa, and fear of instability in Ghana.
Major fundamental factors for the nearest future:
- reconsideration of ICCO forecast for 2012 towards deficit reduction,
- lower cocoa processing during the second quarter of 2012 in Europe and North America,
- possible influence of El Nino on cocoa yield,
- cocoa stocks at ICE storage remain at the 5-year high,
- possible political instability in Ghana after the death of its president.
According to the Analytics Team of Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy, it is hard to predict price development for the nearest future; however, seasonal price drop or moving within a flat seems to be more likely than further growth.
You are free to discuss this article here: forum for traders and investors