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Gold And Silver: Daily Market Outlook. July 26th 2012


 

All the German economic indicators came out worse than expected yesterday.  Markets instantly reacted to the ECB’s statement that there are chances of giving the ESM a banking license. The news provided support to the common currency, probably a temporary one. 

 

 

 

 
According to Citigroup, Greece will most likely leave the eurozone within 12-18 months. The chances are 90%.
 
Yesterday’s new home sales report from the USA showed some growth but failed to come up to analysts’ expectations. The amount of mortgage claims declined dramatically. Today’s durable goods orders report is expected to show a slowdown as well. Market participants will also be looking for unemployment stats. In the meantime, investors are still waiting for the Federal Reserve to clarify the situation around QE3.  
 
Meanwhile, analysts report about a continued increase in gold production costs. The world’s major gold miner may report about a 28% increase (y/y).
 
A new gold storage is expected to enter service in Hong Kong this September. Its capacity is estimated at 1000 tons or 22% higher than the one of Fort Knox.
 
European problems hinder auto production. In its turn, this factor affects platinum prices, despite the fact that there are strikes at South Africa’s major platinum mines.
 
Singaporean dealers report about higher sales of secondary gold.
 
In the meantime, the Israeli Minister of Defense calls on the world’s major powers to urge Iran to stop its nuclear program. Otherwise, when Iran is ready to produce nuclear arms, the program will be much harder to stop.
 
Today’s forecast:
 
According to the Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy, gold is expected to test the support located at 1600. A break below 1600 will probably start a bearish move down to 1592, 1583, 1575. Alternatively, a failure to consolidate below 1600, followed by a break above 1605, may well initiate a rally up to 1608, 1617, and even  1625.
 
 Silver is expected to test 27.15-27.10 on condition that the price consolidates below 27.23. A break above 27.35 will give way to 27.5-27.55. In order to resume the rally, the price will have to consolidate above 27.55. Alternatively, a failure to stay above 27.45 may force the price bank into the current price range, down to  27.25.

 

 

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