26 June 08:01 AM
Futures news, soy. Soybean market currently pays major attention to the condition of future yield in the USA, which has considerably worsened in comparison to last week and last year (32% of crop is in fair condition and 48 – in good condition versus 30 and 51 accordingly).
Hot and dry weather in soybean-growing areas of the USA is the major reason of such deterioration.
In general, as stated by Commodity Trading Department, the situation is the following:
- production has remained at about the same level as last month (reduction by 0.5 mmt in China), and has risen by 13% in comparison to last year;
- export has dropped by 5% since last month, having thus risen by 7% in comparison to 2011/12 my;
- import has remained unchanged in comparison to last month, but has risen by 6% in comparison to last year (mostly owing to China);
- use has remained at about the same level as last month and has risen by 4% in comparison to last year;
- ending stocks have risen by 0.8% in comparison to last month and by 8% in comparison to last season, having amounted to 58.5 mmt. However, it is worth mentioning that US ending stocks have been reduced by 3.5% in comparison to May forecast and by 23% in comparison to 2011/12 my.
Export sales for the week of June 7-14 have amounted to 433.6 ths. tons, which is 58 ths. tons more than last week.
Consequently, at this point weather conditions, which influence US future yield, are the major driver at the market of soybeans.
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US stock indices are trading without any major moves as they cannot find common dynamics. Yesterday, Standard & Poor's 500 dropped down to the local low, which can affect other stock indices. However, most indices are currently trading in the green zone.