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Soybean Market Overview

19 June 09:39 AM

Export has dropped by 5% in comparison to last month, but in comparison to 2011/12 MY it has risen by 7%, having amounted to 96.7 mmt.

Ending stocks have also risen in comparison to last month, they are 0.8% higher than last season. However, it is worth mentioning that US ending stocks have dropped by 3.5% in comparison to May and by 23% in comparison to 2011/12 MY. Speaking about use, it has remained unchanged in comparison to last month, but in comparison to last year it has risen by 4% to 265 mmt.

Consequently, the report has proved to be mostly bearish for soybeans, as ending stocks have risen and use keeps exceeding demand in 2012/13 MY.

Current market situation is the following:
- as of June 11 sowing campaign is over with 97% of sown area, versus the average of 85% for the last five years. 90% of sown crop has grown, which is 23% more than the five-year average. 30% of sprouts are in satisfactory condition, 51% – in good, and 9% – in excellent; in general sprouts’ condition has worsened by 5% in comparison to last week.

- export sales during the week of May 31 – June 7 amount to 376 ths. tons, which is на 64 thousand less than one week ago, but 2 times more than during the equal period last year and the year before last.

To sum up, the Analytics Team of Commodity Trading Department admits that most likely mid-term perspective of soybeans is staying within a flat, as price will be kept from rising by surplus data for 2012/13 MY. At the same time, it will be supported by concern about future crop and higher export sales in the USA, as well as shortage of US stocks.

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