Heroes of Ukraine

«Market Leader» - news and previews making you rich.

Monday, 27 June 01:42 (GMT -05:00)



Foreign exchange market

How Does Urbanization Influence Economies, Investments And US Dollar Exchange Rate?


Last week Credit Suisse Group released a sensational report. According to it, the urban population of emerging economies will make 50% of the global population by 2037. It appears that the analysts show investors which countries (and currencies) they should pay attention to when planning long-term investments. The list includes: China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam . They also provided the list of those countries that will lose their investment attractiveness due to excessive urbanization. These are the USA, EU states etc.

What are the reasons behind such conclusions? Should we trust Credit Suisse’s forecasts?
 
Urbanization
According to Eugene Olkhovsky, Masterforex-V Academy’s leading expert from Canada, in a broad sense, urbanization is a complex social, economic, demographic and geographical process connected with increasing the role of cities in the modern society. In a narrow sense, this is just the growth of cities and their population as compared with the rural population.
 
The contemporary urbanization is different from those seen hundreds of year ago. Previously, cities used to grow only at the expense of migrating rural population and foreigners. These days, apart from migration, there are 2 more factors contributing to urbanization: villages turn into towns while big cities get surrounded by vast suburban areas. As more and more suburbs are built around big cities (usually, big industrial and administrative centers or capitals), they turn into metropolises.
 
For now, there are over 20 metropolises with over 10 million people living in each of them: Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), Tokyo (Japan), New York (USA), Shanghai and Beijing (China), Bombay (India), Jakarta (Indonesia), Moscow (Russia). Mexico remains the world’s biggest city (25.8 million people).
 
Another outcome is the so-called “rurbanization” – it is when urban lifestyle spreads over rural areas.
 
Megalopolises represent the ultimate stage of urbanization. This is the merge of several metropolitan areas. It means that you can move from one city into another without leaving the urban area. Here are some examples: Blue Banana (Dublin, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham, London), Taiheiyo Belt (Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima), Northeast Megalopolis (New York, Boston, New Jersey, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, Hartford, Richmond, Norfolk), Great Lakes Megalopolis (Chicago, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Grand Rapids, Toledo, Akron, Rochester, Buffalo).
 
Indeed, the pace of global urbanization is shocking:
In the 19th century the global population increased by 1.7 times while the urban population quadrupled. In the 20th century the stats increased by 3.7 and 13.3 times correspondingly. In 1950-2000 the amount of urban citizens increased by 400%. During the period of 1991-1995 it increased by 61 million people a year while the rural population of the world kept increasing only by 25 million people.
 
According to the UN, within the first 2 decades of the 21st century the urban population of the world will increase up to 5.1 billion people. The future urbanization will take place mainly at the expense of emerging states as 90% of the rural population lives there.
 
Can you believe it? Today almost 50 % of the global population lives in cities, which occupy only 1% of the land.
 
The future belongs to emerging economies
 
In the early 1990s the level of urbanization in developed countries reached 72% while emerging economies were lagging far behind with 33%. However, the situation is changing rapidly. In 1950 the share of urban citizens was only 19-20% while in 1990, it increased up to 38-40%. In 2000 it reached 45% and is nearing 50%.
Emerging economies will keep boosting their manufacturing industries and investing in human capital and innovation technologies, which will obviously contribute to the growth of their cities.
 
The urbanization prospects in emerging countries are especially high as most citizens are young (2/5 of them are under 14). It is especially true of Latin American countries (with over 70% of the population living in cities). As for China, India and some African countries, it is 40% or roughly 1 billion people. According to some forecasts, the share of urban citizens in Africa is expected to touch 50% in 2030.
 
In terms of the level of urbanization, all the countries around the globe can be divided into 2 groups:
 
Highly-urbanized countries (the share of urban citizens is over 50%). These are the countries of North and South America (except Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras, Salvador, Costa Rica, Haiti and Dominican Republic) Australia, West European States (except Portugal ), Japan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Baltic states, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, South Africa, Tunis, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait etc.
 
Moderately-urbanized countries (the share of urban citizens is under 20%). Afghanistan, Nepal, Laos, Butan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Somali, Madagascar, Botswana, Uganda, Burundi, Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tonga, Sierra Leone, Guinea.
 
Why is urbanization beneficial for investors?
Urbanization favors the development of economies. There is direct connection between the urbanization and GDP growth. According to some estimations, each 5% increase in a country’s urban population causes a 10% GDP-per-capita increase. Those countries with 30-50% of urban citizens can boast record-high GDP-per-capita growth. According to Credit Suisse, as soon as a county’s level of urbanization exceeds 40%, its economic growth reaches the climax (the annual GDP growth is roughly equal to 8%). Therefore, urbanization directly influences production, demand and investments.
 
 
Urbanization stimulates multiple industries, including construction and machine-building industries, metallurgy, services and banking sectors, information technologies, mass media etc. Higher concentration of production and capital results in higher quality of life in megalopolises.
 
There is false urbanization. Investors should consider this factor as well. It emerges when a substantial increase in the amount of urban citizens is not attended by a considerable increase in the amount of new jobs. Ex-rural citizens start replenishing the unemployed army. They live in slum areas. This is especially true of third-world countries.
 
 
 
How does urbanization influence the US Dollar and other major currencies?
In terms of fundamental analysis and Credit Suisse’s recommendations, this is an unstudied question. Eugene Olkhovsky assumes.
 
However, those countries that show a fast pace of urbanization can see their national currencies gaining value against the US Dollar.
 
The following national currencies can boast positive dynamics against the US Dollar:
 
The Russian Ruble:
 
 
The Hungarian Forint
 
 
The Turkish Lire
 
 
The Czech Koruna
 
 
The South African Rang
 
 
 
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could participate in a survey. Please, visit the Academy’s forum for traders and investors and answer the following question:
 
In your opinion, is there correlation between the US Dollar and the national currencies of the countries fast urbanization?
 
 
 
 
 

 

You are free to discuss this article here:   forum for traders and investors

 

Add to blog
Got a question? – Ask it here »
 

Forex: USD/CAD Remains Within Correction due to Growth of Retail Sales in Canada

Retail sales in Canada showed growth in April. The general growth has mostly been caused by increase of sales at filling stations.
 
Retail turnover has increased to 44.3 bln. dollars, which is an 0.9% rise after a drop by 0.8% in March. In general turnover has grown due to price rise, as in natural terms the volume of sales has not changed.
Publication date: 26 June 01:28 AM

Forex: Japanese Manufacturing Sector Keeps USD/JPY Within Bearish Trend

Manufacturing sector of Japan has shown minor rise of business activity in June. Analysts name several factors that have extremely negative influence on Japanese manufacturing sector.
 
Business activity index for manufacturing sector has risen to 47.8 points in comparison to 47.7 points in May. Actual value of the index has proved worse than predicted, for it had been expected to rise to 48.2 points.
Publication date: 25 June 05:48 PM

Forex: AUD/USD Keeps Rising After Publication of RBA Protocols

RBA has kept its interest rate, counting on weak growth of inflation.
 
As shown by protocols of June meeting of RBA, returning inflation to the target level has become one of the reasons to keep interest rate at the same level. Nevertheless, results of the first quarter have shown negative dynamics at housing market.
Publication date: 25 June 04:51 PM

Masterforex-V Expo: Best Micro FX Brokers. June 2016

When it comes to trading Forex via a micro broker, traders don’t have to invest thousands of dollars as the starting capital. This is one of the biggest competitive edges those FX brokers have when it comes to FX rookies getting their feet wet in FX trading. Indeed, few rookies can really afford to start trading big right off the bat. However, it is not recommended to start big if you are just getting your feet wet in trading financial markets. This is where cent brokers (or micro brokers) come in handy. They allow rookies to trade currencies and improve their skills while more advanced traders can test their strategies without having to risk big money.

Publication date: 24 June 05:00 AM

Nordhill Capital: HYPER FX – Major Source of Passive FX Income

These days, Forex trading has become one of the best sources of income of all kinds. For some people who trade Forex professionally on a daily basis, this is a major source of income. For others, this is a source of extra income to some extent.

Publication date: 23 June 04:43 PM

FXTM Opens New Educational Center In Pakistan

A famous international FX broker named ForexTime (FXTM) has become one of the biggest newsmakers of the month. First off, the broker started a brand-new multi-level loyalty program and opened a new office in London. At he same time, the company added Persian and some other languages to the list of supported languages and introduced a new payment system to Russian clients.  On top of that, FXTM gave away $100 000 as the prize pool to the winners of the Forex Legends contest and launched FX Invest, an unprecedented project embracing some of the world’s best financial analysts. All of that was done in a matter of 4 weeks! Apparently, that kind of intensity in introducing innovative solutions has been a pleasant surprise for hundreds of thousands of clients from over 180 countries of the world. Most of those clients leaving their feedback underline the fact that those changes have have a positive impact on their trading and investment performance.

Publication date: 23 June 07:38 AM

Masterforex-V Expo Names Most Reputable Forex Brokers In June 2016.

These days, finding a reputable and reliable broker can turn out to be a real challenge. There is no denying the fact that a reliable trading partner is definitely as significant as a profitable trading strategy along with trading skills and valuable knowledge. Indeed, does it really matter how good you are at Forex trading if your broker can let you down at any minute by giving you non-market quotes, order execution errors or by simply refusing to pay? The answer is obvious. Picking a reputable Forex broker is one of the cornerstones of success in this risk but profitable human activity…

 

 
Publication date: 22 June 12:06 PM

SFX Markets: 6 Fund Protection Factors

For each and every trader out there, financial security is one of the key factors o focus on. The thing is that if you treat you FX trading or investment business seriously, you just cannot stop thinking about how secure your funds and transactions are. Unfortunately, few brokers in the entire industry are actually capable of providing the trader with 100% safety of funds and security.

 

 
Publication date: 21 June 09:48 AM

Masterforex-V Expo: Best Forex Affiliate Offer. June 2016

These days, affiliate programs offered by various FX broker out there is helping the businesses to expand by means of attracting new clients. Introducing brokers which are a part of such affiliate partnership model are capable of interacting with the client directly and get a generous share of the income gained by the primary broker.
 
Publication date: 20 June 09:01 AM

Masterforex-V Expo: Best FX Analytics. June 2016

I guess, nobody is going to contradict the idea that high-quality analytics is one of the cornerstones of successful trading and investing activities. This is definitely true irrespective of a certain financial market you have chosen, including Forex. That said, all respected and client-oriented FX brokers do their best to provide the client with top-notch comprehensive analytics on a regular basis to back the client’s success over the long term. I mean financial news, technical and fundamental analysis, trading signals, economic indicators and some much more.
 
Publication date: 20 June 08:51 AM