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How Does Urbanization Influence Economies, Investments And US Dollar Exchange Rate?


Last week Credit Suisse Group released a sensational report. According to it, the urban population of emerging economies will make 50% of the global population by 2037. It appears that the analysts show investors which countries (and currencies) they should pay attention to when planning long-term investments. The list includes: China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam . They also provided the list of those countries that will lose their investment attractiveness due to excessive urbanization. These are the USA, EU states etc.

What are the reasons behind such conclusions? Should we trust Credit Suisse’s forecasts?
 
Urbanization
According to Eugene Olkhovsky, Masterforex-V Academy’s leading expert from Canada, in a broad sense, urbanization is a complex social, economic, demographic and geographical process connected with increasing the role of cities in the modern society. In a narrow sense, this is just the growth of cities and their population as compared with the rural population.
 
The contemporary urbanization is different from those seen hundreds of year ago. Previously, cities used to grow only at the expense of migrating rural population and foreigners. These days, apart from migration, there are 2 more factors contributing to urbanization: villages turn into towns while big cities get surrounded by vast suburban areas. As more and more suburbs are built around big cities (usually, big industrial and administrative centers or capitals), they turn into metropolises.
 
For now, there are over 20 metropolises with over 10 million people living in each of them: Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), Tokyo (Japan), New York (USA), Shanghai and Beijing (China), Bombay (India), Jakarta (Indonesia), Moscow (Russia). Mexico remains the world’s biggest city (25.8 million people).
 
Another outcome is the so-called “rurbanization” – it is when urban lifestyle spreads over rural areas.
 
Megalopolises represent the ultimate stage of urbanization. This is the merge of several metropolitan areas. It means that you can move from one city into another without leaving the urban area. Here are some examples: Blue Banana (Dublin, Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham, London), Taiheiyo Belt (Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima), Northeast Megalopolis (New York, Boston, New Jersey, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, Hartford, Richmond, Norfolk), Great Lakes Megalopolis (Chicago, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Grand Rapids, Toledo, Akron, Rochester, Buffalo).
 
Indeed, the pace of global urbanization is shocking:
In the 19th century the global population increased by 1.7 times while the urban population quadrupled. In the 20th century the stats increased by 3.7 and 13.3 times correspondingly. In 1950-2000 the amount of urban citizens increased by 400%. During the period of 1991-1995 it increased by 61 million people a year while the rural population of the world kept increasing only by 25 million people.
 
According to the UN, within the first 2 decades of the 21st century the urban population of the world will increase up to 5.1 billion people. The future urbanization will take place mainly at the expense of emerging states as 90% of the rural population lives there.
 
Can you believe it? Today almost 50 % of the global population lives in cities, which occupy only 1% of the land.
 
The future belongs to emerging economies
 
In the early 1990s the level of urbanization in developed countries reached 72% while emerging economies were lagging far behind with 33%. However, the situation is changing rapidly. In 1950 the share of urban citizens was only 19-20% while in 1990, it increased up to 38-40%. In 2000 it reached 45% and is nearing 50%.
Emerging economies will keep boosting their manufacturing industries and investing in human capital and innovation technologies, which will obviously contribute to the growth of their cities.
 
The urbanization prospects in emerging countries are especially high as most citizens are young (2/5 of them are under 14). It is especially true of Latin American countries (with over 70% of the population living in cities). As for China, India and some African countries, it is 40% or roughly 1 billion people. According to some forecasts, the share of urban citizens in Africa is expected to touch 50% in 2030.
 
In terms of the level of urbanization, all the countries around the globe can be divided into 2 groups:
 
Highly-urbanized countries (the share of urban citizens is over 50%). These are the countries of North and South America (except Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras, Salvador, Costa Rica, Haiti and Dominican Republic) Australia, West European States (except Portugal ), Japan, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Baltic states, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, South Africa, Tunis, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait etc.
 
Moderately-urbanized countries (the share of urban citizens is under 20%). Afghanistan, Nepal, Laos, Butan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Somali, Madagascar, Botswana, Uganda, Burundi, Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tonga, Sierra Leone, Guinea.
 
Why is urbanization beneficial for investors?
Urbanization favors the development of economies. There is direct connection between the urbanization and GDP growth. According to some estimations, each 5% increase in a country’s urban population causes a 10% GDP-per-capita increase. Those countries with 30-50% of urban citizens can boast record-high GDP-per-capita growth. According to Credit Suisse, as soon as a county’s level of urbanization exceeds 40%, its economic growth reaches the climax (the annual GDP growth is roughly equal to 8%). Therefore, urbanization directly influences production, demand and investments.
 
 
Urbanization stimulates multiple industries, including construction and machine-building industries, metallurgy, services and banking sectors, information technologies, mass media etc. Higher concentration of production and capital results in higher quality of life in megalopolises.
 
There is false urbanization. Investors should consider this factor as well. It emerges when a substantial increase in the amount of urban citizens is not attended by a considerable increase in the amount of new jobs. Ex-rural citizens start replenishing the unemployed army. They live in slum areas. This is especially true of third-world countries.
 
 
 
How does urbanization influence the US Dollar and other major currencies?
In terms of fundamental analysis and Credit Suisse’s recommendations, this is an unstudied question. Eugene Olkhovsky assumes.
 
However, those countries that show a fast pace of urbanization can see their national currencies gaining value against the US Dollar.
 
The following national currencies can boast positive dynamics against the US Dollar:
 
The Russian Ruble:
 
 
The Hungarian Forint
 
 
The Turkish Lire
 
 
The Czech Koruna
 
 
The South African Rang
 
 
 
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could participate in a survey. Please, visit the Academy’s forum for traders and investors and answer the following question:
 
In your opinion, is there correlation between the US Dollar and the national currencies of the countries fast urbanization?
 
 
 
 
 

 

You are free to discuss this article here:   forum for traders and investors

 

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EURUSD: Euro Starts Thursday With Strengthening Against US Dollar

 

Today, on October 23rd, the bullish sentiment in the market of the US Dollar is still underway.  This sentiment is backed by strong economic figures coming from the USA amid weaker figures from the EU, Japan and China – other major economies.

Publication date: 23 October 07:52 AM

EURUSD: Euro Starts Thursday With Strengthening Against US Dollar

 

Amid positive stats on US inflation indicators, the US Dollar continued its way up against the common European currency. Still, the move suspended at 1.2613. This is still the low of the current week. At the same time, this is the point, the currency pair started recovering from on October 23rd. So far, the currency pair has already managed to recover up to 1.2670.

Publication date: 23 October 07:32 AM

Forex and USD: Global Economic Slowdown Affect US Corporations

 

Another US corporate report season is underway. US corporations are currently reporting on their financial performance in Q3 2014. For instance, the Coca-Cola Company reported on Tuesday, October 21st, to show us disappointing quarterly financial performance. In particular, the company’s global sales remained unchanged while the proceeds came out worse than expected. This naturally made Coca Cola’s stock drop in value the same day. McDonand’s and IBM also reported poor results.

Publication date: 23 October 04:14 AM

Masterforex-V Expo: RVD Marekts Leads as Best ECN Broker. October 2014

 

Forex has turned into a major source of stable income for thousands of professional traders worldwide. Still, this success would be impossible but for reputable and reliable Forex brokers helping their clients make big money. Such trusted companies are oriented towards client needs and desires, simultaneously striving hard to improve their offers (including trading conditions) to let everyone enjoy even more convenient and efficient trading.

Publication date: 23 October 03:16 AM

Masterforex-V Expo: NAS Broker Recognized Best STP Broker 2014

 

As you know, the contemporary trading industry has become extremely sophisticated and competitive. Hundreds of broking companies keep competing for the right to render broking services to new and existing traders and investors. You shouldn't be surprised with the fact since Forex is the world's biggest financial market where trillions of dollars are turned over on a daily basis.

Publication date: 23 October 02:45 AM

Forex Trading and the Art of War: Differences and Similarities

 

Snipers have always been known for being patient, self-controlled. They are perfect in using weapons and evaluating the situation objectively under stress. However, it turns out that such skills are valuable in other sphere of human life and activity, including Forex trading. The thing is that in order to succeed, a trader should be pretty much like a sniper.  Having a winning strategy (which is like a rifle in a sniper’s hands) is not enough. You should know how to use it efficiently and be patient to wait for the right moment to take a shot and hit the target.

Publication date: 23 October 02:20 AM

AUD/USDTechnical Analysis 21st October 2014

AUD/USDTechnical Background

The AUD is quite a volatile currency. Over recent years it has fluctuated in value against the USD by as much as two thirds. However although it is volatile, the AUD/USD pair does tend to both trend and turn around quite smoothly, meaning this pair can be a real pleasure to trade. Both the USD and JPY have a large influence upon the value of AUD, and of course the currency has been highly correlated with the price of Gold.
 

Publication date: 22 October 06:22 PM

Forex: Euro Under Pressure

 

EURUSD spent most of the trading day within the scope of the 1.2730-1.2839 range yesterday. While staying within the range, the common currency showed a little bit of weakness against its American counterpart. Over the course of yesterday’s American trading session, the common currency, the US Dollar strengthening was backed by positive employment figures coming from the US Department of Labor. At the same time, the NAR revealed strong data on the amount of secondary housing sales in the USA over the same reporting period.  In particular, the sales growth improved from -1,8% up to 2,4% with a glance at seasonality. This allowed them to reach the highest value of the year at 5 170 000 housing units. The news was followed by a downswing to 1.2714.

Publication date: 22 October 08:47 AM

USDJPY: Dollar Drops Versus Yen After Japanese Economic Figures

 

Today, on October 22nd, the US Dollar lost a bit of its value against the Japanese Yen after Nikkei 225 showed some strength backed by strong economic data from Japan. However, the US currency is still strong after yesterday’s sales report on the US secondary housing market. These are the strongest figures in 2014. 

Publication date: 22 October 06:16 AM

USDJPY: Dollar Keeps On Retracing Versus Yen Amid Lower Nikkei Index

 

The 10-year US bonds, USDJPY and S&P 500 managed to gain value at the end of last trading week, thereby forming reversal patterns. Even though, those patterns are indicating the likelihood of a reversal, confirmation is needed. This will happen only if all the 3 instruments close the current trading week in the green zone. If this is the case, we may well see a further rally in the market of USDJPY.

Publication date: 21 October 09:56 AM