Fri, 11 May 2012 09:44:00 +0400
Last week the price of cocoa future for June remained within the narrow range of 2280-2350. After the price drop, caused by the statement made of the government of Ghana concerning possible lack of 71 t.t. of cocoa at storages, the price failed to get over 2350.
Fundamental factors for the nearest future include the following:
- good forecast for intermediate crop in West Africa,
- prediction of sufficient precipitation for the nearest 10 days,
- cocoa processing during the 1st quarter of 2012 was lower than last year,
- cocoa stocks at stock ICE exchange storages remain above 5-year level.
According to Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy, by the end of June future price may drop. Seasonal trend gives another proof to such price development. Demand-supply analysis for next year shows that there may form balance or minor deficit. What is more, in such circumstances price development usually coincides with seasonal trend.
You are free to discuss this article here: forum for traders and investors
The other day, oil prices exceeded the $50/b level for the first time in 6 months. Despite the rally from under $30/b all the way up to $50/b, some experts are still questioning the potential of the current bull market of crude oil. While some representatives of the international expert community see the current market bias as a stable long-term tendency, others do not share their optimism, saying that this is a temporary recovery backed by some seasonal factor and some secondary factors dominating the market at this point. In a broader scale, the market bias is still bearish and there are no fundamentals to reverse the longer-term tendency today.
Because of ultra-low oil prices, such OPEC nations as Angola, Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela found themselves neck-deep in debt. The thing is that these oil nations accumulated pretty considerable debt during the bullish cycle in the oil market when oil prices used to be much higher than they are these days. While these the debt was borrowed to improve the economic well being and oil prices allowed these nations to service it much easier, the oil market crash lead to a situation when oil exports started brining less considerable income, thereby making servicing the debt a real challenge. These days, in order to service their debts, the poorer OPEC nations has to provide their lenders with 3 times as much crude oil as they used to do.
The international expert community keeps on pondering on the question of what is the fair oil price to date. In Qatar, the local government and numerous experts assume that this is $65 per barrel or higher. They say that only at this level the international industry will be able to sustain itself over the long term through further oil production and development of new oil fields, which requires considerable investments in the near future.
Some representatives of Kuwait’s oil industry see no fundamentals for much higher oil prices above $50/b in the near future. At the same time, they rate OPEC’s strategy aimed at preserving the cartel’s market share as successful. The Kuwait Minister of Oil says that until the end of this year, the global market of crude oil may have got its balance restored to see the prices settle around $50/b, Masterforex-V Academy reports.
Bloomberg experts have named new oil prices appropriate for the world’s major oil exporters to avoid losses and make at least tiny profits. They rely their projections on the recent research made by Wood Mackenzie, a consulting company saying that at $53/b and above, the world’s 50 major oil companies will stop suffering losses and start capitalizing on their oil exports to some extent.
The opening of iPhone 7 is not going to be held not very soon, but various rumors about the specialty are appearing on an incredibly regular basis. The seventh model has been expected to be a minor update of “apple” gadget, but, judging by information from Chinese insiders, this is not exactly so. Apple has been reported to have finished the latest testing of iPhone model 7, which has been followed by some unofficial details about characteristics of the device.