Wed, 25 Apr 2012 10:16:00 +0400
Futures news, corn. Taking into consideration corn market, two crops, old and new, are to be taken into consideration. This summer the market of old crop will be tense, especially concerning demand. There are no signs of slowdown in ethanol use and export, and ending stocks of corn are predicted to amount to about 700 mln.bushes. Spot market will rise rapidly, or at least remain within flat.
The market of new crop is derivative from weather conditions in the USA, which currently seem almost ideal. The question is how far American and world demand for old crop may influence the situation with new crop.
Spot prices remain high and keep growing at certain points.
In addition, due to the recent drop of futures price the margin of ethanol producers is close to break-even point, and there are talks about additional demand from China. The latter may, though, be doubted of. Additional Chinese import depends on available import quotes, which, according to certain data, have been used up. Private buyers will now be obliged to get permission for additional import from Chinese government or content with current limited quotes, each of which will be difficult. In June the winter wheat will be harvested in China, and, consequently, the niche of additional demand for American corn will be closed.
However, US home consumption and export into traditionally set countries (especially into Mexico, which has faced strong drought) will be supported by June futures at 6.00 US dollars per bushel. ARC predicted the top of the price range – 6.80 US dollars per bushel, to remain unchanged.
On the other hand, as of April 15, 17% of corn was reported to have been harvested, which will enable US Ministry of Agriculture to raise the yield by 3-4 bushels per acre in its May report. Even taking into consideration the expected rise of ending stocks during the season of 12/13, this will be a bearish factor. According to ARC, in order to realize such rise of ending stocks, December futures of corn are supposed to cost 4.50 US dollars per bushel.
At the beginning of summer these tendencies will have harsh competition.
Anyway, weather remains the key factor. Actual yield will finally be defined, and it will define the size of new ending stocks of corn and their prices. Any unfavourable weather conditions may rapidly change the bearish tendency at the market.
Traders should be ready to high volatility.
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