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Thursday, 19 April 01:42 (GMT -05:00)



Stock and commodities markets

Gold And Silver: Daily Market Outlook. April 9th 2012

Gold And Silver: Daily Market Outlook. April 9th 2012

 

 

Friday’s US employments stats came out much worse than expected. Despite the economic growth, the rate of employment (especially in the public sector) keeps declining. Analysts are divided over the level that the rate of unemployment will reach in late 2012. At this point, investors are looking forward to corporate quarterly reports in order to estimate the near future of the US economy.
 

 

 

 

 

 

Japan’s balance of payments report came as a surprise, thus showing a decent surplus. The GDP forecast for Q1 2012 is +1.7% (y/y). Analysts expect the Bank of Japan to abstain for extra stimuli during the current meeting, which is to end tomorrow. However, it is said that during the next meeting scheduled for April 27th the central bank will be forced to announce new measures.
 
China’s PPI came out worse than expected, thus confirming the economic slowdown. The inflation and consumer prices reports exceeded the forecast considerably. The growing consumer inflation may prevent the People’s bank of china from proceeding to further economic stimulation.
 
Indian jewelers have finally gone back to work after 3 weeks of protests in exchange for the government’s promises to consider the jeweler’s demands concerning the taxation of non-brand jewelry. Some experts say that the recent strike cost jewelers $4B of unmade profits. India’s current account deficit reached the highest level since 1949 in Q1 2012.
 
Iran confirmed the resumption of the nuclear talks with the West. Another round of the talks is planned to be held in Istanbul later this week.
 
According to the Commodity Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy, today gold will probably continue its downtrend down to 1630, and maybe 1625-1620. On breaking below the level, the price gets a chance to reach 1600. However, if the support stays unbroken, the price may rebound and test 1650. In order to resume the rally, the price will have to break and consolidate below 1646. The closest targets of the bullish scenario are 1665, 1675.
 
As for silver, the price broke below 31.75, which suggests that it is ready to resume the downswing. A re-consolidation below the level will confirm the intension. The targets of the bearish scenario are 31.50, 31.25, 31-30.90. If silver fails to consolidate below 31.75, there is high probability that of a rally up to 32.0. The rally will be resumed only if the price consolidates above 32.0. In this case, the price may reach 32.25-32.50.

 


 

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