Options: Introduction To Trading Horizontal Spreads On Seasonality
28 March 12:20 PM
In the previous article we told you about the idea of trading options on commodity futures with the help of calendar strategies. In brief, commodity futures are influenced by seasonal factors.
However, using calendar spreads in futures trading is attended with the same unpleasant issues like the necessity to trade the given asset directly, with placing stop-loss orders etc.
Fortunately, we came up with the idea of trading options instead of futures. Indeed, trading options with the help of calendar strategies is another story as compared to futures spreads. Moreover, some positive factors connected with seasonality can be inherited by option trading strategies, i.e. seasonal appreciation of one contract against the other, which gives option spreads another competitive edge. Once the seasonal factors fail, we are defended by time decay, which is profitable in this case.
So, last time we (the Option Trading Department of Masterforex-V Academy) traded corn: a June option was sold while an August option was bought.
Let’s monitor the trade. The plan hasn’t worked so far as the seasonal downtrend is delayed (it should have started in early March).
The chart above indicates that the spread price has gone 10 points (or $500) up from the entry level. Now let’s have a look at the riskrofile of our calendar spread (it consists of 4 sold and 4 purchased options):
The paper loss is $200. Why is it a paper loss? If the price stays at this point at expiration, we will get some $2000 as a reward. If the seasonality does work, we will earn extra money.
Monday has been relatively calm so far, without strong directional moves seen in the market of EURUSD. At this point, the currency pair is consolidating within the scope of the 1.3118 - 1.3145 price range.
Today's European trading session has been relatively calm, without strong directional moves. At this point, the currency pair seems to be making a bullish reaction to the previous bearish move that resulted in setting a new low of the year at 1.3318.
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Yesterday, the common European currency was under pressure exerted by the sellers.
EURUSD started going down since the local high of 1.3218. By the endo of the trading day, the price reached 1.3159. his is still the local low.
Yesterday, we saw positive stats coming from the USA. They concerned the local labor and housing market. In particular, the amount of initial jobless claims shrank from 299 000 down to 298 000 last week, which is definitely a positive sing for those who purchase the US Dollar.
At the same time, the amount of incomplete sales in the local housing market increased up to 3.3% in August. The sales increase took place from 102.5 points up to 105.9 points.
Today, on August 29th, Japan delivered a news block of 4 economic reports during today's Asian trading session. The news block indicates that the economic recovery seen after the recent sales tax increase is unstable and inconsistent. Most likely, the recovery period is going to be longer than expected by the Bank of Japan.
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The strong downward pressure exerted by the sellers of EURUSD weakened a little bit suring yesterday's trading hours. After hitting a local low at 1.3152, the common European currency started regaining some of the lost ground against the US Dollar. The bullish recovery took almost the entire trading day amid a lack of major economic news from the Eurozone and the USA.
The sellers' pressure exerted on the common European currency is still underway. Since the nightly low of 1,3152, the currency pair recovered during the entire European trading session of August 27th but the started going down again. The price level of 1.3188 is still the intraday high.