Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:16:00 +0400
In such a case, the loss of 19 largest banks would amount to 534 bln. dollars. Despite considerable drop of predicted capital, 15 out of 19 holding banking companies will keep their capital four times higher than its normative value.
According to Aleksei Afanasiev, the head of the Department of Portfolio Investments of Masterforex-V Academy, last week’s macroeconomic data was mostly positive:
1. Retail sales rose by 1.1% in February, taking into consideration seasonal fluctuations. In comparison to February 2011, sales have risen by 6.5%. January sales have risen from 0.4% to 0.6%.
2. Industrial production remained the same. Capacity ratio is falling. It has dropped by 78.7% or by 1.6 points from the average since 1972. Its value is 18.3% lower than before crisis. Capacity ratio in January has been lowered from 78.5% to 78.8%. Industrial output did not change in February. Market consensus was slightly worse than expected.
3. Reports of Philadelphia FRS about national production volume slow minor increase in January. Current activity index in March amounted to 12.5 and showed the increase by 2.3 basic points, which is the maximal point since April 2011. General business index remained almost the same in March and amounted to 20.2.
4. Weekly unemployment claims have dropped to 351 000. The four-week moving average is close to the lowest point since the beginning of 2008.
5. Consumer sentiment index dropped to 74.3 in March from 75.3 in February, which is lower than market consensus. Consumer’s general sentiment is rather weak and does not show certain signs of recovery. Small business index slightly rose in February. It has risen form 93.9 to 94.3, which is the 6th rise in a row. However, the index remains at a rather low point due to slow economic growth.
Rally, which started since the beginning of the year, is getting weaker and casts pressure on investors’ psychology. We are currently observing overbought market, and there remains the only question: “will the future correction amount to 3-5% or 10-15%, or something else?”. We recommend redistributing the portfolio, for we believe that aggressive buying at current points are inappropriate.
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Dow Jones, the U.S. stock index embracing the USA’s 30 biggest companies, has rallied fro he first time since August 19th. At this point, it is up by 619 points or 3,95% (16185,51 points). By the way, this is the biggest daily gain since 2001, Masterforex-V Academy reports.
According to John Kerry, United States Secretary of State, the U.S. Dollar may eventually stop being the world’s reserve currency in case the USA rejects the agreement with Iran and goes back to the policy of endless sanctions. This is what he told during his speech in the New-York office of Reuters.
Not so long ago, Ukraine got the right to export its goods to the USA, while doing it duty free. Most likely, the overall amount of such exports is going to be limited and inconsiderable. The thing is that this program is tailored only to those Ukrainian manufacturers capable of producing premium-quality goods. At this point, Ukrainian may start exporting its household chemical goods to the USA.
Emergency meetings follow each other. Eurozone nations are trying to save Greece. At the same time, experts have raised the alarm - Italy seems to be the next Greece. Yet, this time, if that’s the case, the Greek crisis will seem nothing compared to the Italian one.
On July 21st, Standard & Poor's, a well known international rating agency headquartered in the USA, upgraded Greece’s credit ratings – both in national and foreign currencies. The ratings went 2 steps up from CCC- up to CCC+, with a stable forecast, Market Leader reports.
Since today, July 20th, Greece has finally reopened its banks. This happened after the banks were close for 3 weeks. At the same time, the VAT and consumer prices are expected to be increased.
After a stunning stock market crash in China, the Chinese government is doomed to learn a lesson and understand that a governmental intervention may trigger market panic, thereby escalating the situation. With that in mind, any such intervention may do more harm than good and therefore looks inefficient.