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Tuesday, 24 May 17:28 (GMT -05:00)



Business And Politics News

US Banks Passed Stress Tests


 

US bankin gnews. Stress tests for banks may be called one of the key moments of this week. On Tuesday FRS announced the results of stress tests for banks. Reports show that the majority of large-scale US banks are able to fulfill their obligations in extremely non-favourable economic circumstances. The situation may then develop in the following way:
  • Unemployment growth to 13%
  • Price drop by 50%
  • Drop of housing price by 21%

In such a case, the loss of 19 largest banks would amount to 534 bln. dollars. Despite considerable drop of predicted capital, 15 out of 19 holding banking companies will keep their capital four times higher than its normative value.

According to Aleksei Afanasiev, the head of the Department of Portfolio Investments of Masterforex-V Academy, last week’s macroeconomic data was mostly positive:
1. Retail sales rose by 1.1% in February, taking into consideration seasonal fluctuations. In comparison to February 2011, sales have risen by 6.5%. January sales have risen from 0.4% to 0.6%.

 

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2. Industrial production remained the same. Capacity ratio is falling. It has dropped by 78.7% or by 1.6 points from the average since 1972. Its value is 18.3% lower than before crisis. Capacity ratio in January has been lowered from 78.5% to 78.8%. Industrial output did not change in February. Market consensus was slightly worse than expected.
 

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3. Reports of Philadelphia FRS about national production volume slow minor increase in January. Current activity index in March amounted to 12.5 and showed the increase by 2.3 basic points, which is the maximal point since April 2011. General business index remained almost the same in March and amounted to 20.2.

4. Weekly unemployment claims have dropped to 351 000. The four-week moving average is close to the lowest point since the beginning of 2008.

 

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5. Consumer sentiment index dropped to 74.3 in March from 75.3 in February, which is lower than market consensus. Consumer’s general sentiment is rather weak and does not show certain signs of recovery. Small business index slightly rose in February. It has risen form 93.9 to 94.3, which is the 6th rise in a row. However, the index remains at a rather low point due to slow economic growth.

Rally, which started since the beginning of the year, is getting weaker and casts pressure on investors’ psychology. We are currently observing overbought market, and there remains the only question: “will the future correction amount to 3-5% or 10-15%, or something else?”. We recommend redistributing the portfolio, for we believe that aggressive buying at current points are inappropriate.

 

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Another Interest Rate Hike by the Fed Expected In June

Some representatives of the international expert community remind us that the Fed is going to go back to discussing the possibility of another interest rate hike in the near future. This discussion is going to take place during the forthcoming FOMC meeting in June. They say that the markets are wrong when expecting the same interest rate for the 4th month in a row.

Publication date: 17 May 05:42 PM

Saudi Arabia Wants Less Dependence On Crude Oil

Not so long ago, a representative of the Saudi King’s was reported to have introduced a new development plan for Saudi Arabia until the year of 2030. It is named Vision 2030. The plan reveals the local authorities’ intention to introduced some fundamental changes to the country’s economy and financial system. They are aware of the serious dependence on crude oil exports, which is why they want to reduce this exposure to the international market of crude oil by making the local economy more diverse and less dependent on the local oil industry, especially amid still low oil prices and great uncertainty dominating today’s financial markets in general and the global oil market in particular.

Publication date: 04 May 11:12 AM

Fed Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged

The members of the Fed’s FOMC left the key interest rate unchanged at 0,25%-0,5% during the latest meeting last week. This is confirmed by the FOMC meeting minutes. To be more specific, the minutes read that the information received since the March meeting clearly indicates that the contemporary labor market is definitely improving and recovering despite the likelihood of another economic slowdown in the USA.

Publication date: 03 May 05:07 PM

Saudi Arabia Ready to Reduce Oil Dependence

Not so long ago, a representative of the Saudi King’s was reported to have introduced a new development plan for Saudi Arabia until the year of 2030. It is named Vision 2030. The plan reveals the local authorities’ intention to introduced some fundamental changes to the country’s economy and financial system. They are aware of the serious dependence on crude oil exports, which is why they want to reduce this exposure to the international market of crude oil by making the local economy more diverse and less dependent on the local oil industry, especially amid still low oil prices and great uncertainty dominating today’s financial markets in general and the global oil market in particular.

 

Publication date: 03 May 10:03 AM

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Games May Be Dangerous to Both Russia and USA

According to Andrey Gudkov, an observer for Deutsche Welle, the oil games played by Saudi Arabia may present danger to Russia and the USA. The be more specific, the observer says that the Saudis are playing dangerous oil games. They have been playing similar games in security and politics. Now they are playing those in macroeconomics. For instance, it was Saudi Arabia who intentionally disrupted the recent oil summit in Doha. On top of that, the Saudis announced their intention to sell tons of U.S. bonds to a stunning amount of $750 billion. Such unexpected steps may undermine financial markets worldwide and eventually affect a number of major and emerging economies, including Russia and the USA.

Publication date: 22 April 09:26 AM

Brexit May Cost EU 5% GDP

As you probably know, it is still unclear whether the UK is going to stay an EU member. The local officials seem to be against the so-called Brexit. However, the plain folks are going to make the final decision. The thing is that the authorities are going to conduct a Brexit referendum to let the people decide whether to stay in the European Union or quit it.
 
Publication date: 07 April 12:11 PM

Low Oil Prices Affect the Suez Canal

Low oil prices undermined the status of the Suez Canal. They say most ships find it cheaper to sail around Africa rather than sailing through the Suez Canal.  Some market observers believe that the oil market crash resulted in multiple consequences. On top of billions of dollars of lost profits by the world's biggest oil exporters, sailing around Africa is no said to be cheaper than saving time by passing through the Suez Canal.

Publication date: 07 April 08:19 AM

Chinese Economy Recovers Faster Than Expected, HSBC Says

According to HSBC experts, the Chinese economy has stabilized and is on its way to recovery. On top of that, the experts say that the recovery is accelerating and getting faster than expected. To be more specific, the latest economic figures coming from China shows that there is a considerable improvement going on in there.
 
Publication date: 07 April 06:34 AM

IMF Says Global Economy In Jeopardy

The IMF warns about growing risks form the entire global economy, which may end up with a crash. The Fund urges international politicians and financial authorities to start taking urgent steps to stimulate demand and consumption.  
 
Publication date: 07 April 06:16 AM

Russian Central Bank Loads Up On Gold Heavily

Russia’s central bank is reported to have been buying gold at an unprecedented rate. To be more specific, the IMF reports that the central bank purchased 11 tons of gold last month. Given the fact that the People’s Bank of China is still number one in terms of buying gold, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation comes second after its Chinese counterpart. Still, some experts say that the gold purchase stats provided by the People’s Bank of China cannot be seen as reliable since there is no transparent way to confirm those stats. With that being said, Russia may be close to be the biggest buyer of gold to date.
 
Publication date: 06 April 10:44 AM