Heroes of Ukraine

«Market Leader» - news and previews making you rich.

Wednesday, 23 August 13:23 (GMT -05:00)



Business And Politics News

Separatism in Scotland: Threat or Panacea for the United Kingdom?


Investment news, Great Britain. Europe has introduced a number of surprises, not all of them being pleasant for investors. First of all, there has been a powerful debt crisis, which has resulted into the most large-scale problems ever faced by euro zone.

It is now added by rather serious talks about separatism and possible dissolution of certain members of European Union, including those that are at the top of global economy. This primarily concerns Great Britain, which has been struck by the information announced at the very beginning of 2012.

Scotland threatens to separate

As explained by Canadian experts of Masterforex-V Trading Academy Evgeny Olkhovski, the leader of Scottish National Party Alex Salmond has announced about his intension to call a referendum devoted to separation of the country from the United Kingdom in autumn 2014. Preliminary predictions claimed that the referendum may be held during the period of 2014-2016:
in case of positive outcome for Scottish, the process of separation will start; it is supposed to finish only in 10 years;
options. As claimed by nationalists, current ruling power in Scotland , at the referendum voters will be suggested to choose one of three options: maintenance of Scotland as a part of Great Britain, complete independence, or extended autonomy as a part of the United Kingdom. The final option presupposes that municipalities will deal with taxes, but army and foreign economy will remain common with Great Britain. In case of complete independence Scottish National Party would like to create the country’s own army and withdrawal of British nuclear power from the territory of Scotland ;
uncertainty does damage. Anyway, this is the official opinion of London. “Long period of waiting for the referendum does big damage to Scotland , as business fails to understand the perspectives: will Great Britain remain united. Therefore, I suppose that Scottish people are to be asked about certain actions as soon as possible,”, recently said British Prime Minister James Cameron. “If Alex Salmond wants a referendum, why to wait till 2014?... In my opinion, this is unfair in relation to Scottish, who don’t have a clear understanding of when the referendum is going to be held, what the key point of it is, and who is responsible for it,” he added.

What is the goal of England?

The official position of London may seem rather weird at first glance: why aren’t Englishmen afraid of referendum in Scotland and are even trying to speed it up. Why do they need to speed up the dissolution of their own country? There are several explanations.
1. The legal procedures that are necessary for possible separation of Scotland from Great Britain have not been prepared yet. Therefore, if the outcome of referendum in Scotland is negative for London, long bureaucratic red-tape may be started. It will eventually get struck at some legal point and will bring to naught all achievements of the nationalists. Moreover, it is not known for sure whether the outcome of the referendum will be obligatory or recommended.
2. Separation conditions. London may set as one of the major conditions to accept the referendum the requirement to exclude the option of extended autonomy from the list. Scottish will than have to make a difficult choice between complete independence and maintaining the current status.
3. Supporting independence. Last but not least, Englishmen are perfectly aware of the fact that at present the idea of independence is not supported by the majority of Scottish population. In other words, nationalists will fail to collect the desired 50%+1 of votes. Therefore, it is better for London to speed up the procedure of voting. If the idea of independence of Scotland fails to be supported, the question will be closed for a very long time. However, if the referendum will result in separation of northern autonomy, this may become a sad precedence that may later be followed by similar actions in other parts of the United Kingdom – Wales and Northern Ireland.

What is the goal of Scottish National Party?

Having the majority in the parliament of autonomy, nationalists perfectly understand the motive of their opponents and don’t want to go on a leash of Englishmen. “Scotland is against being forced to anything. And they (British government) are trying to make the referendum be held in a rush…No politician, especially from London, should decide on the future of Scotland . Scotland will become an independent country of European Community and will be on friendly and good-neighbourly terms with its partners on the isles,” stated the head of Scottish government Alex Salmond in his interview to ВВС.

But are fighters for independence slow to hold such long waited for poll? They also have their own reasoning.
1. They want to use the time that is left for large-scale propaganda campaign focusing on “everlasting strive for independence” and “heavy enslavement by Britain”. Books will be published, films of “Brave Heart” type will be shot, authorities like Sean Connery involved, etc.
2. In 2014 Commonwealth Games will be held in Glasgow. The same year 700th anniversary of the defeat of the army of King Edward II by the Scottish at Bannockburn. Nationalists are hoping to raise the patriotic spirit in such a way.
3. There will be enough time to discuss all legal nuances and discuss the procedure of holding the referendum with London powers. If everything is done by the letter of the law, Downing Street will have to come to terms with the defeat.
4. Scottish National Party is hoping to win the permission for the citizens who have reached 16 to take part in the vote. Scottish nationalists, as well as their colleagues around the world, are counting on youth that is more apt to take radical decisions than others.

How did the question of Scottish separation arise? In 1707 England and Scotland joined to form a united kingdom. In 1990 Scotland restored its own parliament. At present Scotland is entitled to take independent decisions concerning medical care, education, transport, and justice. The party that wins at local elections is entitled to form its own government and, consequently, choose a Prime Minister. Scottish National Party became the winner during the last elections and raised the question of holding a referendum.

What will happen to Scotland if it separates from the United Kingdom?

Rich Scotland is better than poor Britain!” was the slogan of Scottish National Party, with which it entered elections to the parliament and won. They are expecting to receive super profits from the sale of oil and gas, the largest deposits of which are within national waters of Scotland . It is due to the resources of the Northern Sea that brings confidence to the nationalists that their country and become independent from economic point of view.

Englishmen oppose the idea of independence in Scotland with a firm argument: at the present time of globalization and financial crisis only the largest economies will survive; consequently, any separation may lead to dissolution. In addition to appealing to reason, London resorts to clear threats:
warning. Thus, British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has warned Scottish separatists that if Scotland separates from Great Britain it will not be allowed to use pound sterling a its national currency. Moreover, he has unoptimistic thoughts about the perspectives of Scottish economy, “I don’t think that Scotland will be as prosperous as it is as a part of Great Britain. The mere talks about its independence do harm to Scottish economy, as international companies are concerned about investments”;
response to threats. The hidden threats of George Osborne have been firmly objected by Scottish Premier Alex Salmond, who supports separatism. The Premier claimed that in case of gaining independence, his country may enter euro zone. This statement has done more harm than good to fighting for the independence, which means that Alex Salmond has unwillingly played into the hands of Englishmen. The point is that the majority of Scottish, as well as other citizens of the United Kingdom, are very skeptical about euro zone and do not bother to hide their sarcasm when looking at the present agony. Consequently, the leader‘s statement made about joining the monetary union in future is more likely to make an average Scottish to refuse from independence than support it.

Market reaction or what may happen to the pound rate?

According to the analysts of DFWA Department within Masterforex-V Academy, British currency has set maximal price at the point of $1.5536. Resistance to pound rate is at the point of $1.5545/50. Testing of this point will make it clear if the price will keep rising up to the point of $1.5580. Pound has set new maximal points against euro.

Technically, a strong rising reversal impulse if formed, and the price is at the point of resistance to strong average point, a down bounce is most likely to happen due to such position:

 

график

 

 

“Market Leader” and Masterforex-V Trading Academy are holding a questionnaire in Forex forum for traders and investors: in your opinion, in the present situation separating a certain region from a larger country will:
 
· work for the benefit of the region’s economy;
· will do harm to the region’s economy;

· this depends on the region and on the country.

 

You are free to discuss this article here:   forum for traders and investors

 

Add to blog
Got a question? – Ask it here »
 

U.S. Energy Revolution Announced by Trump Threatens Russia

Donald Trump’s speech about starting a new energy revolution together is now discussed by the international community. It seems that the USA is going to start a new policy regarding commodities. The changes are expected to take place within the next 10 years.
 

 

Apparently, America’s new energy policy is aimed at dominating the global markets over time. That’s why Trump and his administration are now betting big on the local oil and gas production. The thing is, the sources of the so-called green energy are not capable of replacing hydrocarbons for now, which is why they still have to rely mostly on conventional energy carriers, especially as shale oil and gas production has been booming over the last few years.
Publication date: 18 August 06:50 AM

Trump’s Policies Make USA Lose Their Leading Position in the West

More and more international experts are concerned about Donald Trump’s policies. Some of them are concerned that because of him and his actions, the USA may lose their leading role in the Western world.  

 

 

According to Fareed Zakaria, political expert, CNN host and columnist for The Washington Post, Trump’s recent political decisions have made the European Union so united that Putin could never have dreamed of. Even though he is not going to make the Western world collapse, the USA may still lose the number-one status in the Western world.

Publication date: 31 July 12:09 PM

Does China Oust Russia From Central Asia?

As the situation in Afghanistan is getting worse, this is raising a lot of concerns in the international expert community. The Islamic terrorist threat may spread from there to Russian and China, they say.

 

 
According to a Norwegian observer for Dagbladet, there exist 5 countries in Central Asia that can be seen as potential threats to Russia and China. The thing is, the Islamic terrorism may well spread from those countries to their neighbors. They say that Afghanistan is now the biggest potential threat since the amount of armed conflicts in the country are getting more and more frequent and tough. As Taliban (the local terrorist organization) is said to be sponsored and suppled with arm and ammo, the USA seems to be putting the blame for this on Russia.
Publication date: 29 July 11:53 AM

China Invests Heavily In Africa

You probably know that has been investing in a number of countries of strategical importance. There is a lot of African countries on the list. According to several observers, Chinese banks have given such countries over 77 billion euros since 2000.

 

 
Not so long ago, there was a documentary broadcast on the national TV. The documentary is about a railway line in Kenya built by China Road and Bridge Corporation. It praises Chinese engineers and tells the viewer that the Chinese government is ready to support African countries on their way to economic growth.
Publication date: 24 July 11:46 PM

Chinese Economy Is Way Stronger Than Trump Thinks

The Chinese economy has got much stronger. It can now even be compared to the American one, which is viewed to be the world’s strongest economy. Washington clearly underestimates Beijing when saying that the China has been flourishing in the international markets exclusively at the expense of unfair trade.

 

 
Publication date: 23 July 10:48 AM

British Start Getting Disappointed with Brexit, Soros Says

Last year’s Brexit referendum has become a major challenge for the British government, George Soros says. He says that more and more British citizens start getting disappointed with the Brexit.

 

 
The world-famous financier and CEO of Soros Fund Management assumes that now the economic reality starts revealing the real state of affairs and debunk their delusions related to the happy living outside of the European Union. More than 12 months ago, the advocates of the Brexit scenario were trying to persuade people that this choice won’t affect people’s standards of living. Well, since then, the government has been trying to implement this promise at the expense of increasing the internal debt.
Publication date: 14 July 02:40 AM

Two Reasons Why Russia Keeps Losing Influence Over Post-Soviet States

After the USSR ceased to exist, the Kremlin was counting on retaining their influence in the region. However, the truth is that Russia as the major successor to the USSR has been losing its influence over the remaining post-soviet states. There are 2 reasons for that.

 

 
According to the related report recently published by private American analytic company Stratfor, there is a range of new tendencies making it difficult for Russia to stay influential in the post-soviet region, especially when it comes to Ukraine. The two major reasons for that are believed to be the declining role of the Russian language in the region as well as the existing threats of mass protest inside Russia itself.
Publication date: 06 July 01:42 PM

Business with China: New Reality after Blocking Yandex and VK in Ukraine

Ukrainian President Petr Poroshenko has expanded the list of sanctions against individuals and legal entities from Russia. To be more specific, Ukraine imposed sanctions on several Russian online companies, including Yandex, which is Russia’s biggest IT company, as well as some other popular web services like VK, Odnoklassniki, and Mail.ru Group. According to the presidential decree, Ukrainian Internet providers are forbidden to grant access to those blacklisted websites.

Publication date: 06 July 01:13 AM

China Doesn’t Need Russian Gas and Pipelines

Don’t you remember how a couple of years ago Gazprom cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine a number of times. By the way, Ukraine alone used to buy 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas back then. Now Ukraine buys no natural gas form Russia at all. Apparently, Moscow keeps on looking for other outlets. There has been a lot of buzz about China as a new big outlet for Russian natural gas and crude oil. It turns out that two new pipelines should have transferred to China some 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year. Yet, this was the maximum amount, and it couldn’t clearly make up for the export of natural gas to Ukraine.

Publication date: 05 July 11:15 AM

Mass Media on Forthcoming Trump-Putin Meeting

For those of you who don’t know, the first official meeting between Donald trump and Vladimir Putin has been confirmed. It’s planned for July 7, during the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

 

 
Some observers say that the White House did the Kremlin a favor by being the first one confirming the official meeting during the G20 summit. This announcement helped the sided to get of the rumors around the situation and helped Moscow to save face in the Russian media space.
Publication date: 05 July 06:24 AM